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To: Tradelite who wrote (145704)	1/23/2002 6:21:46 PM
From: reaper	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 436258

<<The baby boom generation has been around long enough for many people to live in a mortgage-free environment. These people are passing on money to their children, which enables many of the children to live the same way. >> Look, while you may know some (or maybe even a lot of) people who are paying cash, take a couple of minutes to peruse gov't stats on credit or Fannie & Freddie press releases; their balance sheets are growing at 25% annualized; last I checked the population is NOT growing this fast so the ONLY way that can happen is if the average home buyer is taking on MORE debt. Also, I suggest you have a look at the financial statements of the private mortgage insurance companies (MGIC, PMI, Triad, Radian). These companies' book of business is growing like a weed. I am sure you know as a broker that you don't need PMI unless you put less than 20% down. So if everybody is paying friggin' cash, how the *&^^% are the PMI vendors growing so fast? Jeez

To: Tradelite who wrote (145704)	1/23/2002 6:25:57 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

Trade give us Percentages. If you want me to believe that this refinance boom and housing boom is not built on 80-90% leverage or better, you better come up with some numbers. Now let's say that 50% of people are leveraged 50% or less. That is still one hell of a large bet that FNM has made on the 50% that is leveraged 85-90%. This refinance boom is the ONLY think propping up housing as well as consumer spending. When it goes, all hell will break loose, and that will be sometime this year. BOOK IT! M