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To: ild who wrote (145734)	1/24/2002 9:26:04 AM
From: reaper	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

To ILD & Patron RE: PMI MTG TGIC RDN I personally just have a basket of the lot of them; have not had the time to deeply comb the financial statements to see if I should be size in one or more. My personal opinion is that long rates are going LOWER (I think Patron and I dis-agree on this). That said, I think the proximate cause of rates going lower will be more money going to money heaven and the capital bases of the leveraged/structured finance community being seriously impaired. My shorts in the real estate complex (lenders, GSEs, builders, private mortgage insurance, title insurance) are in large part hedged by very large positions in 5-20 year treasury STRIPS and TIPS. If my expected scenario (rates go down but assets prices get destroyed anyway) comes to pass, I win on both sides. If rates go UP but the real estate complex gets killed anyway, then I win on my shorts but lose on my bonds, so I'm hedged and should come out nicely but not hugely ahead. The only way I get KILLED is if rates go up AND real estate stays strong, which I personally do not think is a tenable outcome. So while I am positioned in these names, know that it is part of an overall very hedged portfolio strategy. Cheers