Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Leap Wireless International (LWIN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pcstel who wrote (1158)	1/24/2002 6:19:06 PM
From: pcstel	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2737

An interesting rebuttal from Charlie on the YHOO side of things! messages.yahoo.com PCS writes: "This is where I believe data revenues will come into play.. The infrastructure upgrade in applicable markets to 1XEV-DO will be minimal on a CapEx basis. However, I believe they can offer fixed/mobile unlimited 60-70kbs "always on" data services for an additional 29.99 per month to Cricket subscribers, $34.99 for non subscribers." I highly doubt that costs for any "infrastructure upgrade" (whatever that entails) will be "minimal." I also am HIGHLY skeptical of the overall data initiative. I've seen this before. $29.99 per month "unlimited data" (for what - ads?? Music?? LOL!) Who's gonna pay that kind of money? The phone is still a phone, its purpose is talking. I will eat my hat the day the mobile phone's main purpose becomes listening to music or surfing the net. Also, the speeds will be much slower than people think. Try 20-30k max. Also, disconnects will be a common occurrence. I think the data revenues for Leap, if this thing ever gets off the ground, will be very small and eventually any major plans for data services will be scrapped altogether. Probably sooner rather than later. Charlie The primary cost factors in a upgrade to 1XEV-DO (in Cricket's case since their equipment is of recent vintage) is an upgrade of your Base Station Channel cards (a one time CapEx event) and the associated increase in adding additional backhual capacity. They already have the spectrum in most markets, and they already have most of the infrastructure in place. Phoenix was upgraded last quarter to 1X for air interface capacity increases, and the IS-95B channel cards were reported to have been moved to existing/new markets for use in non-1X systems. In the case of 1XEV-DO.. There will be no channel cards to replace. But the radio equipment, antennas, waveguide are all reused. The cost is the 1XEV channel cards, and some related support equipment. (See Cambia Networks). So I am comfortable that the data I have assembled makes the upgrade on a cost basis. Minimal The biggest cost is the ongoing increase in cost of additional backhaul capacity. And believe me.. I understand his being "HIGHLY skeptical" of data inititives. He makes a statement like. The phone is still a phone, its purpose is talking. I will eat my hat the day the mobile phone's main purpose becomes listening to music or surfing the net. Funny thing, This has long been my view also.. I have written volumes upon volumes about this over hyped concept on the SI QCOM coming into buy range thread. So much so, that some of the longs on this thread put me on Ignore. There is no mass market for high speed data services in mobility applications at this time! Period! Voice is portable, Data is not. You can weed back through the SI QCOM thread and read my viewpoints on this subject.. I even made the statement that mobile "3G is Dead" in January of 2000 on the SI GSTRF thread. Way before more recent moderation in peoples views. So if you think I am banging the 3G mobile interent drum.. You are mistaken. The money in data is where it is today. 80% of the users connect to the Internet via 50kbs dial up. The money is in Fixed Medium Data Rate /with option for mobile connectivity. Accoridng to LWIN. 7% of their subscribers do not have a wireline phone and use their CricKet phone as their primary phone . Over 50% of thier subscribers claim that they maintain a wireline phone only for internet access. So they pay 19.95 per month to their ISP, and $25.00 a month to their LEC so they can connect to the internet. So that is $44.95 per month for 53kbs (best case) subject to busy signal internet access.. So it seems that $29.99 per month for 70kbs average throughput Internet Access that is not subject to a busy signal, or a noisey line, is a pretty good bargain. Especially, when you can disconnect you landline phone all together, and then the service saves you $15 per month over an ISP/Wireline combo service. Believe me, I am not talking about 1 Mbs, or even 200kbs. The DSL types would be too demanding of a customer. So I think there is great margin in this type data services. If you think LWIN is chasing some "pie in the sky" high speed mobile data service. I believe you are mistaken. He also talks about disconnects as a "common occurance".. Obvioulsy unfamiliar with Data IP. Voice is a "mission critical" application. Everything gets encoded and decoded in "real time". All the bits have to be in order, and on time. TCP/IP is a "best attempt" type of service. Your data does not have to be transmitted in any specific order. All you care about is that the page of HTML shows up. In what order the underlaying data is recieved is really not important. For the most part. And so it goes, PCSTEL