Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: advocatedevil who wrote (59302)	1/24/2002 9:22:55 AM
From: advocatedevil	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

BTW, There's plenty of good info at the ICKnowledge site that this last article I posted came from. Worth the bookmark IMO: icknowledge.com AdvocateDevil

To: advocatedevil who wrote (59302)	1/24/2002 1:51:21 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Yeah, it's a guessing game. The reassuring thing, for me, is that a huge bulge in orders due to the 300mm transition, is a question of when, not if. And the "when" has to be sometime in 2H02 or in 2003. If it's not till 2003, I can wait. The transition is already underway, and 300mm is so much more efficient than 200mm, that we'll see a self-reinforcing cycle. That is, as more semi companies add 300mm capacity, the more their competitors will be forced to switch to 300mm. The only other choice will be to exit the market. I think 2002 and 2003 will see a lot of (200mm) fab shutdowns, and a big upsurge in (300mm) semi-equip orders. The above dependant on the caveats I keep repeating: consumer demand holding up, business spending rebounding, recession ending in mid-2002, war going well. If those assumptions start to look shaky, I'll go to 40% cash quickly.