Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: AC Flyer who wrote (13864)	1/25/2002 1:52:53 AM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Hi Mike (never cared for nick names on the thread), on this ... Message 16953897 <<mistake of looking at the nominal return on your 500K rather than the real return. We are in a period of sustained downward pressure on pricing for tangible goods. What matters is the purchasing power of your 500K a year from now versus today>> We agree! I am counting on it, whereas Maurice is gradually coming around to the idea that things will be cheaper 12 months from now, be they Audi TT Roadsters or beach front property with few neighbors. I suspect that paper derivatives fronting for goods producing companies will also be cheaper, a point you are so far refusing to consider in any serious way:0/ On Amazon, there is at least one set of proforma assumptions that will result in a sustained profit making Amazon, though I fear it involves trimming the organization way back, cutting the range of products and services, default on the debt, and turn profitable by becoming smaller, slower, less useful, and hoping that no real world competitor sets up an Internet sideshow doing what they do. Oops, there is www.bn.com associated with Barnes & Noble, and so I guess Amazon is in fact doomed:0) <<You are blinded by your preconceptions ... "Recently, Dale Jorgenson at Harvard University and Kevin Stiroh at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York set out to debunk the New Economy theory -- then found themselves embracing it.">> Folks from Harvard and types from McKinsey cuts little ice with me (never mind the Federal Reserve), as I had sent my wife to HBS for finishing school and nothing more, and all my friends from McKinsey are ex-McKinsey. I believe the 1990s bubble will prove to be the greatest folly due to the hubris of intellect. <<I now plan only to get (more) wealthy at a risk-averse 10% to 15% per year>> I believe it is critically important to set goals, make the plan to reach the goals, do the hedges as an insurance against failure, then implement the plan, and monitor progress towards goals, making adjustments accordingly to new data. I believe 10-15% is realistic but difficult on sustained basis, with effort and care, and is about what I aspire to. SDo you have a hedge position, other than maintaining you on-going business? I am hoping that Pezz on this thread will in fact prove out to be a genius so that I can tag on to his trades in the future and achieve 35-100% per annum, or better still, leverage up 2:1 and go for 70-200%:0) Chugs, Jay