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Biotech / Medical : Elan Corporation, plc (ELN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Icebrg who wrote (1420)	1/29/2002 10:27:39 AM
From: Icebrg	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10345

Elan puzzled by sharp fall in share price By David Firn in London Published: January 29 2002 10:24 \| Last Updated: January 29 2002 13:31 Elan, the Irish speciality pharmaceuticals company, said it was on track to meet fourth-quarter and full-year earnings forecasts and knew of no reason for a sharp fall in its share price on Tuesday. Shares in Elan, which is listed in the US, UK and Ireland, have fallen 23 per cent since it suspended clinical trials of an Alzheimer's disease vaccine on January 18. Elan shares were down 3.61 per cent at E40 in early afternoon trading in Dublin, after earlier hitting a 12-month low of E39.75, down 24.5 per cent since the start of the year and down 47.9 per cent from their 12-month high of E76.35. In London the shares were up 1.65 per cent at 447p. Analysts said the Alzheimer's vaccine accounted for only a fraction of ELan's value. However the problems were a blow to confidence at a time when investors have become more sceptical about the quality of earnings at acquisitive speciality pharmaceuticals companies. "The collapse of Bioglan with debts about £105m last year has put other companies under the spotlight," said one analyst. Investors are waiting for news from Elan on a US marketing partner for Frova, the migraine treatment which it licensed from Vanguard of the UK. In November the company said it was in discussions with potential partners. Analysts have recently scaled back expectations for the drug, which has taken longer than expcted to reach the market. Nick Staples at WestLB Panmure said Frova was likley to fall short of market expectations because it offered no advantages over existing treatments. A similar product form Pharmacia has struggled to win less than 1 per cent of the market, while Pfizer, the world's largest pharmaceuticals comapny is poised to launch Relpax in the US later this year. "We think frovatriptan sales will didsapoint the market as US sales are likley to fall below $100m," Mr Staples said. Excitement about prospect of an immunisation that could prevent the fatal dementia helped boost Elan's shares last year after impressive animal studies were reported in Nature, the academic journal. However, analysts say the vaccine is at such an early stage in development that they have not included it in their valuations of Elan. "Given the product launch is scheduled for beyond 2006, removal ofthe product from the pipeline would not affect our short to medium term forecasts," analysts at ABN Amro said. ABN forecasts earnings per share of $1.90, 30 per cent growth year-on-year, when it reports preliminary results on February 4. Thomson Financial/First Call said consensus earnings forecasts were 56 cents per share for the fourth quarter and $1.92 per share for the full-year. Elan and its US partner American Home Products suspended clinical trials of AN-1792, the experimental vaccine for Alzheimer's disease, after some patients suffered nerve damage. The trials could be re-started if the damage is unrelated to the vaccine. Elan said at least one of the patients with nerve damage had a viral infection that could have caused the problem. It also said the suspension did not jeopardise the rest of the study. news.ft.com