Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ilaine who wrote (13871)	1/24/2002 1:50:52 PM
From: Petrol	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

CB, I must respond to your post and respectfully disagree. <<The strong US economy in the 1920's was not, in general, a bubble, although some sectors probably were.>> Yes, it was in every way a bubble. <<Similarly, the strong US economy in the 1990's was not, in general, a bubble, although there probably was a bubble in certain sectors. Telecom is probably one. >> Yes, it was a bubble and it still is. Even more so. When this current bubble pops, it's going to cause more financial pain than ever before. The nasdaq will get back to it's 10-year channel and that's nowhere near where we are now. Try slicing it down to 1982 levels and then we might be talking fair value and recovery. Telecom was one bubble to pop and other sectors, especially those in tech where pe's are nowhere in site. There has never been any instance in history where excess isn't culled and this will be one of them. When I see tech's starting to have pe's based on fair value without government (fed) intervention to the 'nth degree and possibly some dividends, then we can discuss a recovery. Otherwise, there will be no recovery anytime soon, regardless of what talking heads on TV say. My reasons for this are as follows: derivative manipulation enron (others will follow) massive consumer debt unemployment rising over-valuation in equities banks inability to call in loans excessive refinancing pension fund shortfalls excessive education costs argentina and japan, etc. the widening gap between the classes war on terrorism going nowhere... Petrol