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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sam Citron who wrote (59328)	1/24/2002 2:17:54 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Respond to of 70976

The "sweet spot" = when semi-equip stock prices peak = at the peak, or just before the peak, in bookings for 300mm equip. The short answer is: I don't know, but I'd guess mid-2003. With little confidence in my guess. That question isn't the important question, right now. Now, we need to be trying to figure out whether we're currently seeing the trough in bookings (yes, I think), and how long this flat trough lasts (till mid-2002, I'm guessing). And whether the semi cycle is now correlated with the general economic cycle (yes, I think).