Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (1741)	1/24/2002 4:28:55 PM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95622

You may be right Cary but since AMAT is the largest semiconductor equipment company it will still follow the upward performance of the SOX as long as people see a recovery coming. All I am looking for here is a swing trade on AMAT. If the SOX hits 600 again in the next three weeks would you be surprised to see AMAT at 48 again? I doubt it. When it gets there I may already have taken my profits. NVLS may very well be a better play. Thanks, RtS

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (1741)	1/24/2002 5:06:28 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95622

Cary, You present an interesting theory. It prompted me to use some of the data I have stored to first answer the question - how has AMAT tracked the SOX, or vice versa, on a weekly basis since 9/21. The following table is the result. AMAT SOX AMAT SOX DIFF WEEKLY WEEKLY TOTAL TOTAL SOX AMAT SOX PERCENT PERCENT PERCENT PERCENT MINUS PRICE PRICE CHANGE CHANGE CHANGE CHANGE AMAT 9/21/01 29.24 381.01 9/28/01 28.44 373.70 -2.7 -1.9 -2.7 -1.9 0.8 10/5/01 31.55 406.10 10.9 8.7 7.9 6.6 -1.3 10/12/01 35.16 473.78 11.4 16.7 20.2 24.3 4.1 10/19/01 32.55 423.82 -7.4 -10.5 11.3 11.2 -0.1 10/26/01 36.87 480.74 13.3 13.4 26.1 26.2 0.1 11/2/01 37.97 489.44 3.0 1.8 29.9 28.5 -1.4 11/9/01 38.57 506.81 1.6 3.5 31.9 33.0 1.1 11/15/01 39.26 529.92 1.8 4.6 34.3 39.1 4.8 11/23/01 38.76 511.30 -1.3 -3.5 32.6 34.2 1.6 11/30/01 39.74 518.95 2.5 1.5 35.9 36.2 0.3 12/7/01 44.45 571.74 11.9 10.2 52.0 50.1 -2.0 12/14/01 42.32 549.02 -4.8 -4.0 44.7 44.1 -0.6 12/21/01 39.97 520.58 -5.6 -5.2 36.7 36.6 -0.1 12/28/01 41.81 538.79 4.6 3.5 43.0 41.4 -1.6 1/4/02 45.22 589.89 8.2 9.5 54.7 54.8 0.2 1/11/02 45.01 568.89 -0.5 -3.6 53.9 49.3 -4.6 1/18/02 40.35 523.04 -10.4 -8.1 38.0 37.3 -0.7 The last column gives a measure of difference on a weekly basis, between AMAT and the SOX. Note that in general, the correlation is quite close. The major weekly difference occurred during the week of 11/15/01 when the SOX was 4.8 percent ahead of AMAT. Last week however, AMAT was ahead of the SOX by 0.7 percent. Over that 17 week period, the SOX was up 37.3 percent and AMAT was up 38.0 percent - a very close correlation. I will update this table over the next 6 months to see how well they track. It should prove to be interesting and enlightening.<gg> Don