Siebel earnings, outlook rally software stocks
(UPDATE: Adds analyst comment and details, updates share prices)
NEW YORK, Jan 24 (Reuters) - Siebel Systems Inc. (NasdaqNM:SEBL - news) shares jumped over 7 percent in late trade Thursday, a day after the No. 1 maker of software to automate selling and customer service posted better-than-expected results and forecast earnings and software revenue growth in 2002.
Siebel's news, plus upbeat comments from other software names such as SAP AG (NYSE:SAP - news), webMethods Inc. (NasdaqNM:WEBM - news) and Aspen Technology Inc. (NasdaqNM:AZPN - news), which also reported earnings on Wednesday, helped spark a rally in the sector.
Siebel rose 7.2 percent, or $2.50, to $37.30 in late trade on Nasdaq. Aspentech, a maker of software used to automate manufacturing processes, soared over 20 percent, gaining $3.36 at $19.45.
WebMethods, which makes software that enables different computer systems to communicate with each other, was up 17.1 percent, or $3.73, at $25.50.
SAP was up a penny at $36.81 on the New York Stock Exchange. Without doubt, Siebel was Wednesday's top news, analysts said. "For the first time in a year management's tone is
decidedly positive and, more importantly, guidance was raised materially," Bob Austrian, an analyst with Banc of America Securities, said in a research note to clients. After the markets closed on Wednesday, Siebel posted fourth-quarter profits that fell 17 percent from the year earlier, but soundly beat Wall Street's lowered estimates.
Tom Siebel, the company's chief executive, told Reuters in an interview that he sees 2002 per share earnings rising to 55 cents from 49 cents last year on software revenue growth of 15 percent.
``I really expect it to be more than that,'' Moors & Cabot analyst Ed Bierdeman said.
Bierdeman added that Siebel's software license sales could get a boost from momentum around the company's new Web-ready software and its coming expansion of industry-specific offerings.
Siebel's confident tone prompted analysts, including brokerage firms Credit Suisse First Boston, U.S Bancorp Piper Jaffray, WR Hambrecht and Wedbush Morgan Securities, to raise their outlook for the company's first quarter and full year 2002 earnings and revenues.
J.P Morgan raised its estimates and said it raised its stock rating to ``buy'' from ``long term buy.''
``While we believe near-time visibility is still cloudy our channel contacts indicate heightened customer activity ... and a number of large deals in the pipeline,'' J.P. Morgan said in a research note.
Siebel's guidance came on the heels of European software giant SAP's forecast, on Wednesday for 15 percent revenue growth in 2002, reinforcing optimism that the sector will be in strong turn-around mode this year.
``We are beginning to see some encouraging signals that the underlying fundamentals in the software sector as a whole are beginning to turn up,'' said Neil Herman, an analyst with Lehman Brothers.
That sort of thinking helped add heat to rallies in a variety of sectors, analysts said.
Siebel rival E.piphany rose 8.5 percent, or 88 cents, to $11.25. PeopleSoft Inc. (NasdaqNM:PSFT - news), which is due to post its fourth quarter earnings Thursday and also competes with Siebel, was up 4.9 percent at $38.23.
Pivotal Corp. (NasdaqNM:PVTL - news), a small Canadian CRM vendor that also reported on Wednesday, was up 22 percent to $6.04.
BEA Systems Inc. (NasdaqNM:BEAS - news), which makes the underlying software that applications such as Siebel's run on, jumped 8.5 percent, or $1.65 to $21.05. The Standard & Poor's Computer Software index rose 2.75 percent.
Meanwhile, webMethods' rivals in the software integration sector also saw gains. SeeBeyond Technology Corp. (NasdaqNM:SBYN - news) gained $1.25, up 11.3 percent at $12.30 and Vitria Technology Inc.(NasdaqNM:VITR - news) rocketed 17.5 percent to $7.18. |