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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: High-Tech East who wrote (9878)	1/24/2002 10:41:40 PM
From: J.T.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19219

... and maybe we will see 1200 in the relative short run (and be above the 200 DMA) ... although I think the SPX or SPH2 will break down and probably take out the September lows between now and the end of February ... I think the market has the potential to have a meaningful pullback towards the end of Feb and into March as warnings season commences. I find it hard to believe we will take out the Sep lows by end of Feb let alone March considering we had one of the all time highs (if not the all time high in the 5 day cboe p/c equity/index average well around 1.20). This coupled with historic quadruple and quintuple oversold market conditions. I believe we have a 40% shot of testing the end Oct 30 - 31 lows in the end Feb - Mar time frame. I never said anything about a recession being over as I think we have two more quarters to work off inventories from the excesses of Y2K post parade bubble. The market will pick this up towards the middle of Feb and into March as companies pre-announce again. But I also know the market is a discounting mechanism and the downdraft will be quick and fleeting as it looks into year end and into 2003. It is this next forthcoming bottom in 2002 (which will be a higher bottom vs Sep 21) which will plant the seeds for a monster rally that will lead the DOW roughly 50% higher to the intraday high top in 2003. That is, 2002 intraday low DOW 9,000 will lead us to DOW 13,500 intraday highs in 2003. For COMP 2002 intraday lows COMP 1,700, we could see an 80% increase to the 2003 intraday high top or COMP 3,060. For SPX, 2002 intraday low 1,080, we could see a 40% + higher increase to 2003 intraday highs which will take us to SPX 1,520 + area. Mr. Roach is a very good economist... His analysis was early during the latter stages of the bull run (as many of us were) but he has been dead on the last two years. I would get an optimistic economic point of view to offset his and take that analysis for the market outlook in 2003. I tend to be more optimistic for the broad market returns in 2003 vs 2002. Best Regards, J.T.