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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mike Buckley who wrote (50053)	1/24/2002 9:30:13 PM
From: Mike Buckley	Respond to of 54805

Sorry, everyone. I spotted a couple errors in my description and accounting of the Gorilla Game. The two corrections are shown in italics. THE GORILLA GAME To quickly summarize the numbers below, this Gorilla Game began 3 2/3 years ago and is hugely profitable despite that the two indexes are marginally profitable. In the last two years which began near near the top of the bubble, the performance of the Gorilla Game has equaled the S&P 500 and has dramatically outperformed the tech-heavy Naz. However, all have lost considerable value during that period of time. Since History History 1/1/00 Annualized Gorilla Game 217.56% -22.27% 36.99% Nasdaq 7.63% -52.26% 2.02% S&P 500 1.96% -22.94% 0.53% The numbers for Siebel Systems as of the close of market, January 24, 2002: Change 5/25/98 5/1/99 4/11/00 Current From First Buy Price Buy Price Buy Price Price Purchase SEBL $5.75 $9.61 $52.47 $36.89 541.57% --Mike Buckley

To: Mike Buckley who wrote (50053)	1/25/2002 1:09:57 AM
From: Mike Buckley	Respond to of 54805

Management is guiding that services revenue will be flat in 2002 and that licensing revenue will grow 15%. ... The tax rate is expected to decline from 37% to 36%. And to repeat the stuff about operating margin, it's expected to grow to 24% from 20% by the fourth quarter. For Q1, management is guiding no change in the revenue and the operating margin. Actually, there's a typo in there. The operating margin they guided was 23%, not 24%. In a separate post, I'll run those numbers to show what we might be able to deduce. Management declined to respond to one analyst's back-of-the-envelope projection of $.57 EPS using those assumptions. I came up very roughly with a range of $.54 to $.57 depending on the amount of share dilution. I assumed a fairly even increase in licensing revenue and operating margin throughout the year. Using other assumptions of revenue coming in more on the front end or back end of the year combined with the impact of the operating margin becoming 23% sooner rather than later, I think the estimate would be extended to a wider range of about $.52 to $.59. Average the two and I arrive at an estimate of $.56, a 14% increase. Not being an anlyst, that's as far out on the limb as I'm gonna go. :) --Mike Buckley