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Strategies & Market Trends : Trade/Invest with Options Jerry a Point & Figure Chartist -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jerry Olson who wrote (4916)	1/25/2002 10:40:33 AM
From: Jerry Olson	Respond to of 5893

Gaming stocks are overbought here folks..i would hedge or take profits now!!! Live Headline 25-Jan-02 10:22 ET Video Game Software : Notable weakness in the sector this morning, with THQI (-5%), ERTS (-3%), ATVI (-2.8%) under pressure. Traders attributing sell off to Dow Jones headline from early this morning that Sony cut its Playstation unit forecast to 18 mln from 20 mln.

To: Jerry Olson who wrote (4916)	1/25/2002 5:53:29 PM
From: cavan	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5893

Won't be pounding anyone this weekend! LOL Jerry

To: Jerry Olson who wrote (4916)	2/2/2002 3:12:25 PM
From: Jerry Olson	Respond to of 5893

HERE'S MY JAN 20TH NEWSLETTER NAMED " DOWN COME THE INDICATORS."..AND DOWN THEY CAME...WE TOUCHED MY DOWNSIDE TARGET NICELY AND BOUNCED...ALBEIT FROM OVERSOLD CONDITIONS..I AM NOT WILDLY BULLISH JUST YET..BUT I WILL BE ON A RETEST OF THE LOWS OF 1080...IF NO RETEST?? THEN LOOKOUT..THE TRAIN WILL BE GONE!!!! JERRY OLSON'S "POINT" OF VIEW NEWSLETTER DATED JAN 20TH 2002 "DOWN COME THE P&F INDICATORS" Hello everyone... Well my EAGLES crushed the Bears right in their own back yard..a major victory in a big way..it showed strength of character and the will to win away from home..Now bring on who ever...What a game... OK here's the current strategy for all of us for the near term...I have 4-5 P&F indicators rolling over and down now..YOU DO NOT BUY ANYTHING LONG HERE...wait for the pullback coming..it's far from over folks...look for some supports at the .38% to 50% retrace on ALL indexes...set alerts there...and use the lows of Sept 21st the tops in Jan...for your calculations... As I've been writing the last few weeks about hedging your longs..I was not kidding..On any rally back up here from short term over sold...sell longs, write Covered Calls maybe out to Mar instead of Feb, or buy puts to protect your long term portfolio..those on LEAP's just write Feb or Mar Calls against your current positions I will talk about them in this letter..I love to take in cash near tops...We now have the stocks above their 10 week moving averages on both the NYSE & OTC rolling over and down, now the HILO indicators have rolled over too, these are warning shots... ALL indexes double topped in Jan and sold off...It does not take a rocket scientist to see it either...where do we fall too??? We'll have to see when the buying starts again and at what levels we find support..I still feel we will NOT test the Sept lows..50% is a definite possibility and probably between NOW and the end of MARCH... One other thing..Stocks above their 30 week mva's has reversed down for the OTC index.....and as I spoke and wrote about we were skewed to the right on ALL sector bullish percents at 61.6%.. that is a negative...so with all those events falling into place here I am telling you caution is the KEY word..please tell your friends and relatives alike...I am sure they have no clue dealing with those Wall Street Wizards...Show them how to write Covered Calls(CC's) and use March strike Month... Let's talk about our LEAP Call Portfolio..and how to hedge it nicely..IMCL is dead money, no longs there..just wait till I tell you what to do..it will be used as a tax loss sale against winners...Unless over the year something good happens...Here's an example for what to do with any leap...stock or index... INTC..we purchased this LEAP Call on or about NOV 4th for $4.60 when the stock was 26 bucks or so...the stock went up 20+% to touch 36 bucks and the LEAP went up 150% to about 9.75 or so...it's now $7.70 with the price at 33 1/2...i would write the Feb 32 1/2 call of 2002..right at the money....you'll take in to your acct cash fo $2.20 and your covered thru Feb 15th for now... let's talk about what happens IF this or IF that... 1---the stock close's above 32 1/2 on Feb 15th, you will have to buy back this option so you Do not lose your leaps..unless you do not care??...the option price by that time will be greatly reduced because of TIME DECAY... 2---the stock close's below your strike price, you keep the premium of $2.20 and you keep your leaps...no muss no fuss... 3..if either the stock collapses or rallies up large between now and then it matters not to you..if it explodes then you'll buy the Feb option back, but your leaps will be up big too!!!!..no biggie there..if the stock falls hard..then you'll just buy more leaps....kapish??? Man sometimes I even smile as I write this good stuff<VEGA>...I only wish, hoped that others out there over the last 2 years would have been given some direction from those A$$holes on Fall Street...pisses me off big time..we we're all screaming all the way down..SELL SELL..I remember people/traders on SI would chastise me about my mantra..'SELL ALL RALLIES TILL YOU SEE THE WHITES OF THEIR EYES"...people called me UN-AMERICAN, as we continued to short everything..HAHAHAHAHAHA..i swear it...we all knew those CEO's paraded on CNBC were liars and criminals..telling the unsuspecting public 'OH US? WE'RE JUST DOING GREAT, A BIT SLOW BUT SHOULD BE FINE GOING FORWARD"...yeah right..WE'RE ALL LOOKING AT THE CHARTS IMPLODE...talk about livid...ok don't get me started..I'll go nuts..heh heh heh... Let's look at all the indexes... DJIA---I THINK WE'LL GET A TECHNICAL BOUNCE SOON UP TOWARD 9950---10K AREA...THIS WILL BE THE TIME TO WRITE CC'S AND SELL SHORT ALL THOSE OVERBOUGHT CHARTS..THE BIO'S STILL LOOK WEAK...THE BREAKDOWN AREA IS AROUND 9650 IF THAT HAPPENS WE MOVE TO 9400 QUICKLY..THEN POSSIBLY THE 50% RETRACE OF 9000 OR SO...WHAT IS INTERESTING THE "NEW" BOTTOM OF THE 10 WEEK TRADING BAND IS NOW RISING UP TO 9000/9100, THAT IS SOLID SUPPORT FOR ME...IF WE EVEN GET DOWN THERE...WHAT IS VERY INTERESTING HERE CHART WISE..IF YOU MOVE BACK IN TIME TO THE 100 BOX CHART WE HIT THE BRL LINE AT 10,300 AND GOT REJECTED RIGHT THERE... NAZ/COMPX---HIT THE BRL LINE AS WELL ON THE 50 POINT BOX CHART, BUT ON THE 20 POINT CHART WE BROKE THRU TOPPED OUT AT 2080 AND CAME DOWN TO 2020 BREAKING THRU IT..SO LOT'S OF INDECISION NEAR THIS TOPPING AREA...IF WE RALLY BACK UP LOOK FOR 2000/2050 TO BE HEAVY R...THEN ROLL OVER AND DOWN TO BREAK 1900 FOR THE NORMAL 3 BOX REVERSAL DOWN I AM LOOKING FOR...50% RETRACE IS AROUND 1750ISH...WE'LL TEST 1840/70 FIRST... SPX---HEY WE KNOW THIS INDEX LIKE A GLOVE...AFTER THE PERFECT DOUBLE TOP AT 1175...THIS INDEX SOLD OFF DOWN TO THE THE BOTTOM OF THE CURRENT TRADING RANGE I SPOKE ABOUT NEAR 1120 THE LOW END & 1170 THE HIGH END...A 3 BOX REVERSAL BACK UP WILL BE 1160..REMEMBER 1164?? SOUND FAMILIAR.? TOUGH R THERE...IF YOU LOOK AT THE DAILY CANDLE CHART WE ARE NOW TRADING "BELOW THE 20 & 40 EMAS"..SO ALL BOUNCES WILL BE BACKSIDE UP AND INTO RESISTANCE(R)... SOX--FAILED A DOUBLE TOP AT 600 LIKE ALL OTHER INDEXS..HAS ROLLED OVER AND DOWN HERE AND SHOULD EASILY TEST 520, THEN 500 IS A BIG BREAKDOWN AREA..LOOKS LIKE 480ISH IS THE 50% RETRACE BACK DOWN./...WHAT DOES THIS MEAN TO OUR LEAPS?...BUY MORE OF COURSE...550 THE 3 BOX REVERSAL BACK UP...HEADSUP HERE..THE BULLISH PERCENT OF THE SEMIS HAS GIVEN IT'S SECOND SELL SIGNAL NEGATIVE..IT HAS A LONG WAY TO FALL HERE..ALMOST ALL OF THE INTERNAL INDICATORS ON THIS INDEX ARE IN BEAR CONFIRMED STATUS...THIS SYMBOL IS BPSEMI ON P&F.. BTK---ALREADY BROKE DOWN AS I TOLD EVERYONE LAST 2 WEEKS..WE ARE SELLING ALL RALLIES IN THIS INDEX..EVERY CHART LOOKS WEAK TO ME..IF THEY RALLY UP..SHORT THEM AT R...IDPH LOOKS PERFECT FOR THAT<G>...THIS INDEX HIT THE BRL LINE AT 570 AND SOLD OFF FAST...BROKE THRU THE TRIPLE BOTTOM AT 530..MY DOWN SIDE TARGET IS 480 FOR NOW...THE TOTAL "LOOK" OF THIS CHART PATTERN IS "NOT" GOOD...AVOID GOING LONG RIGHT NOW...IT HAS A SYMMETRICAL DOWNSIDE LOOK TO IT..I'VE SEEN THIS BEFORE..VERY NEGATIVE...THE BPBIOM(BULLISH PERCENT BIO TECHS) HAS REVERSED AS WELL HERE ON THIS INDEX... NDX---FINNALLY REVERSED DOWN 3 BOXES AT 1550 BUT IT BROKE A TRIPLE BOTTOM WHEN IT DID THAT..ON THE 20 POINT CHART...1ST TARGET IS 1450ISH..THEN MAYBE THE BOTTOM OF THE 10 WEEK AT 1340/50 AREA...THE QQQ'S ARE GOING TO COPY THIS FALL AS WELL...SHORT ALL RALLIES... VXN--SIMPLE INDEX TO WATCH...53 IS HEAVY BIG TIME R...54 BLOWOUT BREAKOUT..MEANS THE MARKET WILL BE SELLING OFF FAST RIGHT?....1ST TARGET WOULD BE 69 ON THAT BREAK...MARKETS MOVE INVERSE TO THIS INDEX AND THE VIX... VIX---26 THE B/O AREA, 28 HEAVY R, THEN 36 THE TOP OF THE TEN WEEK... OK LET'S CHECK OUR STOCKS WE KNOW AND LUV... AMAT---THIS STOCK HAS BEEN ONE SOLID SEMI FOLKS..IT HAS "NEVER" VIOLATED THE UPTRENDLINE..THE BSL LINE...IT'S RIGHT HERE NOW ABOUT READY TO GIVE THAT VERY FIRST SELL SIGNAL SHORTLY...OFF A MAJOR DOJI TOP IT'S PULLING BACK NOW...39 1/4 THE SHORT SALE TRIGGER(SST) 38 KEEPS YOU SHORT...41 1/4 THE BUY TRIGGER LONG(BTL)... BRCM--EARNINGS THIS WEEK..THEY'VE BEEN SELLING THESE EARNINGS FOLKS...49 1/2 THE BUY TRIGGER LONG...47 1/4 THE SST..45 THE DOUBLE BOTTOM BREAK...STAY SHORT...53 IS HEAVY R IF IT GETS THERE... CCMP---OK HEADSUP HERE...EARNINGS THE 24TH...CHEMICAL SECTOR HAS REVERSED "DOWN" HERE ON P&F...STOCK HAS ROLLED OVER AND DOWN..WE MAY GET A BOUNCE UP INTO EPS TO SHORT..RIGHT?...THIS STOCK BROKE THE BRL LINE TOO OFF THIS RECENT PULLBACK...WATCH TO SEE IF IT CAN GET BACK UP TO 77/78 AREA...73 3/4 THE BUY TRIGGER FOR THE QUICK TRIP AHEAD OF EPS...71 1/2 THE SOLID SST...70 BUCKS KEEPS YOU IN THE SHORT... GNSS---THERE WAS SOME SERIOUS BUYING LATE FRIDAY..BUT I THINK THE TREND IS DOWN NEAR TERM...IT CAN BE TRADED VERY NICELY EITHER WAY..67 1/4 THE BUY TRIGGER LONG...69 STAY LONG...64 3/4 THE SST WAIT FOR IT FOLKS...63 THE TRIPLE BOTTOM BREAKDOWN THERE, STAY SHORT FOR ALL YOUR WORTH<G> CHART SAYS LOWER... IDPH---OBVIOUSLY THIS STOCK IS IN TROUBLE BOTH IN THE BIO TECH INDEX AND ON THE CHART...I'VE SHORTED THIS TWICE LAST WEEK FOR EXCELLENT MONEY..THE LAST ONE ON FRIDAY NEAR THE TOP AT 63..I COVERED NICELY...59 1/4 THE SST...YOU MIGHT GET 53 ON A SWING SHORT..61 3/4 THE BTL AND IF IT TAKES OUT THE RECENT 63 NUMBER TRAIL UP YOUR STOP IN CASE THE MARKETS TRIES TO RALLY FROM THIS OVERSOLD SHORT TERM CONDITION.. MCDT---THIS STOCK WENT NOWHERE LAST FRIDAY VERY TIGHT RANGE...29 1/2 THE BUY TRIGGER LONG...31 THE 3 BOX REVERSAL BACK UP...27 1/2 A SOLID SST...TEST 25..24 KEEPS YOU SHORT... MYGN---STOCK IS DOWN FROM 63...WOW!..LOOKS LIKE IT'S GOING TO 33?..HAHAHAHAHAA...42 3/4 THE BUY TRIGGER LONG...46 HEAVY R THERE...40 THE SST...STAY SHORT.. NEWP---SOLID STOCK AND CHART, PULLED BACK BUT NOT MUCH...23 1/4 THE BUY TRIGGER LONG BTL...HOLDING AT THE 20 EMA DAILY HERE..21 1/2 A SOLID SST THERE... NTAP--WE CALLED THIS A SS AT THE HIGH POLE TOP AROUND 26/27 AREA...19 1/2 BTL---20 3 BOX REVERSAL BACK UP(3BXRVUP), 17 1/2 SST... NVDA---FELL OUT OF A RISING WEDGE ON THE DAILY CANDLE CHART...64 3/4 THE BUY TRIGGER LONG(BTL)...66/67 NEW R THERE...62 1/4 THE SST(SHORT SALE TRIGGER)...62 THE 3 BOX REVERSAL BACK DOWN(3BXRVDN)...THE CHART IS DEVELOPING TO A SHORT FOLKS..WATCHING HERE/// EMLX---THE SHORTS GOT MURDERED ON THIS ONE...IT JUST DID BREAK THE RISING WEDGE ON THE CANDLE CHART...ONE TOUGH COOKIE THO...EARNINGS ON TUES...WATCH THIS, THEY ARE SELLING EPS FOR SURE...NO HOLDING HERE THRU THE REPORT..WE'LL WATCH IT AFTER HOURS...43 3/4 THE BUY TRIGGER LONG...41 1/2 THE SST... QLGC---THIS STOCK DOUBLE TOPPED OUT AT 57 AS CALLED A WEEK OR SO AGO...50 1/4 THE SST...52 3/4 THE BTL...IF WE SELLOFF SOON MY DOWNSIDE TARGET ON THIS STOCK IS 43...A SWING SHORT...EARNINGS THIS WEEK ON THE 23RD..WATCH IT CAREFULLY...COULD BE SCHWEEET<G>.... BRCD---SAME BASIC CHART PATTERN AS QLGC...36 1/4 THE BTL(BUY TRIGGER LONG)---38 3BXRVUP...34 1/4 THE GOOD SST(SHORT SALE TRIGGER)... SEBL---EARNINGS THE 23RD..YOU SAW WHAT THEY DID WITH MSFT & IBM RIGHT?....BEAUTIFUL CHART HERE ON BOTH THE P&F AND CANDLESTICK CHART...35 1/4 THE BUY TRIGGER LONG WITH ANY BREAK OF 37 YOU STAY LONG TRAILING UP YOUR STOPS AND EXIT BEFORE EPS...33 1/4 THE SST...MAY TEST 27/28 AREA IF THEY MISS<G>.. QCOM--CALLED IT A SHORT AT 56 AND AGAIN AT 49..BOTH WORKED OUT NICELY...THIS STOCK IS VERY OVERSOLD HERE..NEAR THE BOTTOM OF THE 10 WEEK TRADING BAND...EARNINGS 24TH OF JAN...45 1/4 THE BUY TRIGGER...48 IS THE 3BXRVUP..WAY UP THERE...43 3/4 THE SST... VRTS---FELL OUT OF A RISING WEDGE ON THE DAILY CANDLE CHART...THE P&F CHART LOOKS LOWER TO ME...44 1/4 THE BTL HERE...45 THE 3BXRVUP...42 THE SST..WITH ANY BREAK OF 41 STAY VERY SHORT... ELNT---THIS CHART LOOKS LIKE QLGC & BRCD CHARTS?<g> HMMMM---37 3/4 THE SST...36 AN IMPORTANT BREAK THERE...39 3/4 THE BUY TRIGGER....42 THE 3BXRVUP... CYMI---THIS STOCK IS AN ACCIDENT WAITING TO HAPPEN<VBG>...HIGH POLE..REVERSES BACK DOWN ONLY 4 BOXES LOOKS STRONG...NOT IF WE SELLOFF OVER THE NEXT FEW WEEKS...HERES THE SETUP...35 3/4 THE BTL...37 THE DOUBLE TOP 38 THE BREAKOUT AREA...32 3/4 THE SOLID SST...I WOULD HOLD THIS SHORT IF IT CAN PRINT 31... MERQ--ANOTHER VERY INTERESTING CHART SHOWING A BIG TUG OF WAR WITH THE BUYERS AND SELLERS..BREAKS A TRIPLE TOP AT 37 AND THE BRL LINE TO BOOT..THEN PROMPTLY SELLS OFF GIVING THIS CHART PATTERN A BULLISH SIGNAL REVERSAL PLAY...IT'S NOW SITTING RIGHT ON SUPPORT AT THE BSL(THE BULLISH SUPPORT LINE)...32 3/4 THE BUY TRIGGER LONG..WAIT FOR IT PLEASE...30 THE SST..GOOD SUPPORT THERE WITH 29 STAY SHORT... IVGN---ANOTHER BIO TECH...BOTH THE CANDLE AND P&F CHARTS ARE VERY VERY NEGATIVE EVERYONE...55 1/4 THE SST...WITH ANY BREAK OF 54 A BIG SLAM THERE...57 1/4 THE BUY TRIGGER LONG...THIS STOCK CANNOT GET THRU THE BRL LINE OVER HEAD... GILD---BIG BEARISH STICK ON FRIDAY ON SOLID VOLUME...BROKE A TRIPLE TOP AT 69 BUT FOUND NEW SELLERS AT 71 A LOWER HIGH...64 3/4 THE SST...66 1/4 THE BUY TRIGGER LONG... OK THATS IT FOR TRADING STOCKS....I'D LIKE TO DO AN EXTENSIVE SEPARATE UTILITY/ENERGY TYPE PORTFOLIO FOR US AND YOUR RETIRED FRIENDS I NEED TWO PIECES OF INFORMATION FROM MY ACCOUNTANTS OUT THERE, HELEN ARE YOU LISTENING<g>?... 1...TO GET THE YIELD ON YOUR SHARES HOW LONG DO YOU HAVE TO HOLD THOSE SHARES 1 FULL YEAR??? 2...EVERYONE CHECK ALL THESE STOCKS AND LET ME KNOW IF ANY OF THEM HAVE LEAPS ON THE OPTIONS SIDE OF THE EQUATION..I KNOW MANY OF THEM HAVE SHORTER TERM OPTIONS WE CAN PLAY...BUT I WOULD LIKE TO KNOW... HERE'S A LIST TO CHECK FOR NOW..AND ANY OTHER PLEASE LET ME NOW WITH THE ABOVE INFO... AEE---AEP---CIN---CMS-=--DQE---EDE---TXU---GXP---MTP---PSB---WQP---PSD---ED---ETR---FDG---FPL---IDA---OGE---PCG---PGN---RGS---XEL..THATS WHAT I LOOKED AT FOR NOW... WHEW!..I'M BEAT..TALK TO EVERYONE IN THE AM...THE MARKETS ARE CLOSE FOR MLK DAY.... WARMEST REGARDS TO ALL JERRY