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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (24736)	1/25/2002 4:51:23 PM
From: vampire	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

Ya may wanna keep that shouting down a bit since you also had 14 something for December on the Naz (then revised to 16 something, followed by 17 something) why are the odds of a tank job higher now?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (24736)	1/25/2002 5:00:56 PM
From: All Mtn Ski	Respond to of 99280

More semi CAPEX cuts, this time from TSM: TSMC's Q4 sales up 23%; fab-utilization hits 50% Foundry giant cuts capital spending plans 25% in 2002 Semiconductor Business News (01/25/02 07:52 a.m. EST) HSINCHU, Taiwan -- Silicon foundry giant Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. today reported a greater-than-expected 23% sequential increase in net sales to NT$33.1 billion ($947 million) for the fourth quarter of 2001 compared to NT$26.9 billion ($769 million) in Q3. On a year-to-year basis, TSMC's sales dropped 38% NT$53.8 billion ($1.5 billion) in Q4 of 2000. TSMC's strong sequential increase in Q4 sales provides more evidence that a recovery is underway in silicon foundry markets after the worst downturn in semiconductor history. Earlier this month, TSMC reported its sixth sequential increase in monthly revenues during December. Moreover, the company's Q4 sales growth greatly accelerated from a 2% sequential increase in Q3, when foundry markets apparently hit the bottom of the slump (see Oct. 26 story). The world's largest silicon foundry said it sold 558,000 eight-inch equivalent wafers in the fourth quarter, a 25% increase over Q3 shipments, but 44% below volumes in the fourth quarter of 2000. TSMC's net income improved sharply in the fourth quarter to $4.5 billion ($129 million) compared to NT$1.2 billion ($34 million) in Q3. However, TSMC's profits were also sharply lower than a year ago, when it posted a net income of NT$21.5 billion ($614 million) in the Q4 of 2000. During the final quarter of 2001, the Hsinchu-based foundry's overall fab-utilization rate jumped to 50% from 41% in the third quarter--which now appears to be the lowest point in the downturn for TSMC. A year ago, TSMC's foundries were operating at 105% capacity utilization in Q4 of 2000 with the use of extra work shifts prior to collapse of market demand. Looking ahead, TSMC today said it expects net sales to sequentially increase in the "single-digit" percentage range in the current first quarter period of 2002 from Q4 revenues. Its overall fab-utilization rate is expected to improve to about 60% in the first quarter, said the company. But leading-edge processes for 0.18-micron and below design rules are now running at even higher capacity utilization rates of about 90%, according to TSMC. However, the foundry giant said its 2002 capital expenditures will be about $1.65 billion, a 25% drop from $2.2 billion in 2001. By the end of 2002, TSMC said it plans to have total capacity in place to process 358,000 eight-inch equivalent wafers per month compared to 381,000 wafers at the end of 2001--a 6% decline. About half of TSMC's $2.2 billion in capital spending last year was used on 300-mm (12-inch) wafer fabs, the company said. Total installed capacity managed by TSMC in its own fabs and joint-venture companies was 4.4 million eight-inch equivalent wafers in 2001. The company said it will continue to focus its capital spending in 2002 on the ramp of 300-mm fabs. Overall silicon-processing capacity, however, is being reduced with advanced technologies replacing older frontend lines. For example, TSMC is closing its Fab 1 six-inch (150-mm) plant and ending production in its Fab 4 eight-inch (200-mm) facility during the first quarter. The company is also scaling back production runs in three eight-inch fabs during 2002. But TSMC's 300-mm Fab 12 plant will increase its capacity from 2,000 wafers per month at the end of December to 4,000 by the end of March. The 300-mm fab is scheduled to have the capacity for 10,000 twelve-inch wafers per month by the end of this year, according to TSMC. siliconstrategies.com

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (24736)	1/25/2002 5:04:17 PM
From: 4rthofjuly007	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

Unless I have missed a turnip update, your miserable February does not see the compx breaching 1800. Seems more range bound than miserable. Also, I believe that patch is still looking for a new high on the compx this spring. If we are the equivalent of a "week or two after the May 22 high" of last year then we have seen the highs for the year. No? Sorry if I am misquoting the turnips and thanks for all of your hard work.

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (24736)	1/25/2002 5:09:37 PM
From: LTK007	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

<< the equity P/C ratio hit .38 yesterday>> now that is just plain smug ugly low.Like your analysis.

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (24736)	1/25/2002 10:26:12 PM
From: Crimson Ghost	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

Zeev: I find the low VIX and VXN quite worrying. They have hardly risen at all despite recent market weakness. Tremendous complacency out there. While VIX and VXN are not good short-term timing tools, they do signal huge risk in this market IMHO. As does continued heavy insider selling.