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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (111705)	1/25/2002 7:29:08 PM
From: DWB	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

IMHO, I don't think your assumptions for 10 year growth take into account the possibility of QCOM earnings expansion into areas that are currently not part of their revenue stream, but that will shortly (1-2 years) be major contributors. If you look at a company selling some generic widget, and talk about 15% CAGR, you're basically saying they are still addressing the same market, but selling a steadily growing amount. The problem with that analysis is that it can't account for the addition of new markets easily. QCOM will continue to grow sales into existing CDMAone and Omnitracs markets, but has the additional potential to sell into the automotive (Wingcast), PDA/laptop (Compaq), fixed wireless (1xEV-do), software (via Brew), huge new cellular markets (China/India), and potentially the biggest potential, the current GSM market via 3rd Gen sales. Once the GSM world migrates to CDMA2000 or WCDMA, QCOM goes from a market where 15-20% use their system, to one in which nearly all will be potential clients. All of those would grow QCOMs sales over and above what we would consider their expected organic market growth, and potentially cause earnings to go up MUCH more rapidly than just second gen. CDMAone market growth... Therefore, when you say that QCOM will have a hard time growing at a constant percentage for the next ten years, I agree only if you are talking about their currently addressable markets. Otherwise, I believe there are new markets that will make it an apples and oranges comparison, and in which you may see a period in the next 1-2 years where explosive growth occurs simply because their opportunities do too. DWB