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Gold/Mining/Energy : Canadian REITS, Trusts & Dividend Stocks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Peter W. Panchyshyn who wrote (2544)	1/26/2002 11:42:30 AM
From: a.handbag.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 11633

This thread is obsessed with the age old argument over investment style. We have a spectrum, with buy and hold for ever at one end, and day trading at the other. It would be nice to know where the sweet spot on this spectrum lies, but there are other variables, such as who is doing the trading and over what time period, one year, 10 years, or 100 years. One thing is absolutely certain, and that is that we will not prove anything with anecdotal evidence, still less by shouting. For what it's worth, and that's very little, I will reveal my solution. I hold about 25 income trusts, the majority O and G royalty trusts. I have a self imposed limit on how much I will venture on any one. I re-invest all the distributions using the following crude criteria. I only buy if I'm lowering my average cost, and I favor the purchase that does the most lowering. Laugh if you will, but it keeps me from chasing up. For instance I like COS.UN, but I've held it a long time, with an average cost of 17, and I can't bring myself to fork out 38 for it. I am following this thread to get ideas in the kick-ass asset class (make that kick-asset class) of the present era. Keep the ideas coming but hold the rancor.

To: Peter W. Panchyshyn who wrote (2544)	1/26/2002 5:02:47 PM
From: Lorne Larson	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 11633

Did a little checking of past posts myself this morning. Found one from a certain Peter Panchyshyn (#1145) which stated: "Best across the board buying opportunity in the last couple of years". That was June 27/01. I note PGF was at 17.74 on that date, and now trades at 14.07. NCF was at 16.95 (split-adjusted) and is now at 12.04. PWI was at 8.45 and is now at 6.49. PVE was at 10.85 and is now 8.85 etc, etc, etc. In fact the present prices are well off the lows posted in November and December. When you recommended the trusts in June many of us were suggesting that it might be wise to lighten up because oil and NG prices appeared to be weakening. You were very critical of this approach. While I have no problem with your buy and hold strategy, and agree that over the long-term it provides excellent returns, the "documented" evidence as you are so fond of saying, establishes that there is a better strategy. An investor who held the trusts in 1999, 2000 and the first part of 2001, sold in mid-2001, and is buying back in now will be substantially ahead of an investor who held continually during this period. It's not a matter of "trading", it's a matter of acknowledging that oil and gas is a commodity and is therefore cyclical. If NG hits $10.00 again and/or oil hits $35.00 again, I'll be selling and even shorting again. I'll buy back in when NG hits $2.00 and oil hits $18.00, as I have in fact been doing with PVE, AVN and AY over the past month. AVN at my average cost of $7.75 is a much better price than its $9.90 price at your stated "buying opportunity" on June 27, and PVE at my average cost of $8.25 is much better priced than its $10.85 price on that date. I'm still a bit concerned that I'm buying in too early. Only a fool would not be at least somewhat concerned about the high NG storage levels, the possibility of Russian oil flooding the market, and the possibility of this being a secular recession. I agree with you that these are not factors for someone taking your long-term approach to these trusts. However it is a consideration for anyone looking for an entry point - whether for the first time or as a cyclical investor. As a side-note I do not "trade" these trusts on the long side, except for some nice dividend stripping on SHN because it paid quarterly. Having now bought AVN, PVE and AY, I will hold them for a long time. I do trade on the short side when distributions are dropping, because as I stated in a previous post there is (was?) money to be made around the announcement and x-dividend dates. I have attempted to refrain from insults in this post as suggested by other posters. The tone of your response will dictate the tone of my responses in the future.