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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: J.T. who wrote (9898)	1/26/2002 5:26:42 PM
From: High-Tech East	Respond to of 19219

I think we have put in good bottoms on the 22nd and 23rd and we scream higher next week. What is the update on your SPH short position via the 18 Bar set-up? ... J.T., 1st, I believe that you could be correct in your analysis that says the SPX will hit 1200 (and be well above the 200 DMA of 1167) before it corrects to as low as 1060 to 1080 (your numbers) ... 2nd, your forecast that equities will likely rally into February 7 or 8 could also happen ... and if those two events take place, the VIX could reach the 17 or 18 you mentioned (now at 21.93) ... but I concede all of these things to your analysis (somewhat reluctantly) because you have a had a lot more experience and success than I have in technical analysis and calling short-term moves accurately ... ... frankly, I do not understand the reasons behind your reasons ... I do not follow Rydex at all ... most of what I understand from your "Rydex Total Assets Updates" comes from the notes you post at the bottom ... ... most of my views and opinions on equities (as a group) come from mentally processing all my daily and weekly readings (The Economist, Business Week, Contrary Investor, Financial Times, Barron's, The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, Steven Roach, Richard Russell, John Hussman, John Murphy, Bill Fleckenstein, Lance Lewis, Fortune, Forbes, John Berry and of course, Silicon Investor) ... ... all I can really say about the S&Ps on a TA basis comes from my limited study of Larry Williams ... (A) relative to the last 5 years (actually much longer than that), the commercials are still net short very significantly, ... (B) public sentiment is very high, ... and combined with that, ... (C) the 7-bar ADX and the 14-bar K stochastics/%D slow stochastics have "pinched" (and the stochastics have rolled over) for the 7th time since late July, 1998 ... ... the last 6 "pinches" have led directly to corrections (in the number of weeks) for the S&Ps of 11, 13, 6, 3, 29 and 16 ... the last two corrections, which began during the weeks of 09/08/00 (29 weeks) and 06/08/01 (16 weeks) were severe ... ... yesterday, I sold the SPH2 at 1132.00 and got stopped out at 1136.50 ... I sold it again at 1137.60 which I am holding at least until Globex opens tomorrow, and probably into Monday ... ... the 18 bar entry still looks to have been good for a long term S&P sell ... however, as Ross Perot said, "I am all ears" for your comments ... let's keep talking ... Ken Wilson