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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sam Citron who wrote (59460)	1/26/2002 4:15:58 PM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Sam, so we all know what we're arguing about - here's what Neff said to Barron's... Neff: I've got one short, Applied Materials. Like a lot of people around this table, I too think technology stocks have come back too far and too fast, particularly those areas that are capital-expenditure dependent. Applied Materials is one of the biggest semi equipment suppliers, and I think this company will earn nothing this year, as it has for the past couple of quarters. It is nicely financed, and has a very good balance sheet. But there are a lot of other tech companies in their customer base that need to get cash positive, which might happen by midyear. This company is capitalized at about $37 billion. Book value is around $9, and the stock is selling for $45.22, well down from its high of a little more than $100. But it's well up from its recent lows in the high $20s. Q: If you're right, those people who have been buying the stock, expecting a big improvement in the semiconductor business, could face considerable disappointment. Neff: The company will about break even for the next six, seven quarters. On the other hand, it's got a great balance sheet, with hardly any debt and cash of $4.7 billion. So it's not going out of business. Q: In that case, we're all going to dinner. Thank you.< I still say we have better collective knowledge of the industry right here. Gottfried

To: Sam Citron who wrote (59460)	1/26/2002 4:53:03 PM
From: Tito L. Nisperos Jr.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Sam, I agree with you that Jeff Neff is a very successful Mutual Fund manager but with his call to short AMAT, I agree with Gottfried to ignore him. I think he should concentrate on stocks he know better, he has to learn more about AMAT and its sector. An AMAT employee (like my cousin who started with $50K and less than 10 years later had more than $2M in his 401K) who doesn't care about P/Es and just bought AMAT because he believed the stock will continue doubling his shares every 2 to 3 years will fair better in investing in AMAT than Mr. Neff. I said these with the understanding that his short is good for at least a year and not just for a week or so. Time will tell.