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Strategies & Market Trends : Trend Setters and Range Riders -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: lee kramer who wrote (10105)	1/26/2002 8:03:40 PM
From: Susan G	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 26752

Actually I too believe the JCP rumors are BS. But we better get ready, I think this will go on longer than just next week... And affect dozens of companies. This has long term implications if you ask me, for any company that reports pro-forma income. That VIX info is on its way in a few!

To: lee kramer who wrote (10105)	1/26/2002 8:10:42 PM
From: Susan G	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 26752

The VIX and VXN are Market Volatility indicators - indicators of fear or complacency in the market. The numbers are inverse to the market, the VIX or VXN rising is a sign of a bottom, and dropping can be a sign of a short term rally but ALSO a sign of a pending top. The low readings since September have been a clue that that rally could continue, that there was little fear in the market. Consistently higher level readings as as we had last year really showed how nervous investors were. It's not so much the levels that have to be watched, especially if they stay range bound they are rather meaningless. It's sharp reversals that are the warning signs. They can be really confusing as sharp moves down towards "top territory" can make you nervous, as the VXN to me did on Friday. But as long as they don't REVERSE UP after making this new low they actually indicate a rally. So when I got fearful of it right before noon on Friday, it was actually a perfect short term signal to go long for a breakout move, after that 1/2 hour consolidation around 11:30. Right when you bought the NQs after the retest of the lows. We are heading into the "topping" area on both the VIX and VXN so it's got me watching it more closely than normal. There is still room to rally higher - which was proven today( which will move the indicators lower). But every time we have ventured into these areas we have put in a major top on the indexes. Or a major bottom as the huge spike in September indicated. And the reversals are swift and without much warning. Attached are charts to see this. If you open the DOW and the VIX and line them up one above another, you will be able to see how these dips into the lows and highs correspond perfectly with major tops and bottoms. The same for the Nasdaq, open the COMPX chart with the VXN and align them. The VIX tracks the DOW, and the VXN the Nasdaq. The VXN is only a year old and is harder to read than the VIX, due to a lack of history to compare it to, as there is for the VIX. Although both the VIX and VXN moving lower short term can be an indicator of a breakout or a rally, what needs to be watched is if they REVERSE up from those lows. 3 days ago they started to reverse up on the swift selloff we had, but have now moved back into the trading range, showing potential for more upside but still too close to this major topping range to ignore. The charts can be checked on the dailies, without watching all day but alerts help to let you know whether they are reversing one way or another for an early warning. On Qcharts the tickers are INDEX:VIX.X and INDEX:VXN.X. For the DOW and VIX home.earthlink.net home.earthlink.net For the Nasdaq and VXN home.earthlink.net home.earthlink.net Here are a few articles stockcharts.com finaxyz.com