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Gold/Mining/Energy : Twin Mining (formerly Twin-Gold) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bill who wrote (120)	1/27/2002 4:40:13 AM
From: VAUGHN	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 613

Hello Bill There are two kinds of junior plays deposits with real potential and moose pasture. You are correct in using your technique if you invest in plays that are moving regardless of real potential (momentum or promoted plays). To use your analogy, you are betting on a horse and it is not so important which horse so long as everyone else is betting on it too... In that horse race, gamblers are allowed to adjust their bets before the horse gets to the finish line. In short you can win without the horse winning. However, every once an awhile Secretariat comes along. Except in that horse race, no one knows it's Secretariat except the jockey and a few punters who've either been hanging around the stables or have read the fine print in the horses pedigree certificate. They know a winner when they see one and bet accordingly. Like any horse race, Secretariat may not come out of the gate first and may even fall back during the course of the race while the gamblers are adjusting their bets and taking their winnings off the table, but comes the stretch, you know what Secretariat is going to do, and you know what people will pay for him after he’s won a few races! Enough of these analogies, I'm getting a headache! What do I think of HD If TWG were a moose pasture play, I would be focusing on that and probably only that. Pez proved exactly what a great promoter could accomplish. On the other hand, if great promotions don't have drill results throughout the race (here we go again) that nag ain’t gonna make it! If an ore deposit just keeps on putting the drill results on the table, I don't think it really matters if the CEO is a good drumbeater. But there is a related and more important issue. At the end of the day, how many junior miners actually go into production through their own resources? If they do, they usually dilute original shareholder equity to pennies. But its a whole lot less expensive to put an underground gold mine into production in the 70's than it is to put an open pit diamond mine into production in the 21st century. (How do you say 2000's? Doesn't sound right.) Maybe HD & the BOD can find a RSA bank to finance 1 billion against production (like SUF & Messina), but that was $70m not a $1b! Maybe DeBeers will finance to production in return for immediate payback from production and exclusive marketing rights? What ever happens, I can't see how TWG can go it alone trying to retain 100% ownership without diluting which they have stated they do not want to do and couldn’t raise enough money for mine construction doing that anyway. I suppose they could go in on a micro scale and try to build the mine slowly from profits, but I can’t imagine shareholders being that patient. It would be totally unfair of me to offer any personal opinion what so ever about HD. I have never met the man nor spoken with him. My only knowledge of him is his bio, what I have heard on various threads and what various industry sources have told me. I have certainly heard strong opinions about his approach vies a vie promoting TWG, but one thing I have never heard or observed, is any suggestion of inability or illegality… and to me, those two are the critical factors. Is he competent? Everything I have read and been told suggests that he is. Do I know this for a fact? No. But as I said above, I'm not so sure it will matter, as I can't see how TWG can go it alone. The normal course of events if a deposit looks economic is for a major to either finance a bulk sample and then finance to production for 40% - 60% of the play, (ala BHP/Diamet) or for a major to make a take over bid (hostile or not) ala DeBeers/Winspear. The ideal of course from a shareholders perspective is a bidding war ala Voiseys Bay and in the case of JI, I would not rule that out. I had mentioned in a post last week that HD was heading to London to meet with the financial establishment and tell the TWG story. That meeting apparently occured the day before yesterday. An attendee with whom I often correspond wrote me about what was discussed. HD did his presentation then a Q&A. In response to questioning he confirmed approaches from De Beers, Kennecott and BHP Billiton. I have no doubt about the honesty or accuracy of my source and since Kennecott has assembled (claimed) just about every parcel of land around TWG's JI claims, I have no doubt they have expressed just such an interest. It then stands to reason that the others would have a similar interest. I have run this up the flagpole over the last 24 hours with a few other sources and knowledgeable players and the consensus is there is reasonable probability that this is in fact true. So whether HD is a "good jockey" or not, may be a mute, if one or more of these players take a run at TWG. Time will tell, but Bill, I would hate like hell to be you, if a bidding war started while you were looking for a pull back to get back in. Until every last drill core has been pulled and every pipe has been bulk sampled and a scoping study has been completed, we won't truly and finally know whether JI is a real play or moose pasture (muskox up there). However, everything published so far suggests that JI has very real elephant potential. Kennecott seems to think so and it would seem DeBeers and BHP/Billington do too. Regards Vaughn