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To: Pink Minion who wrote (10115)	1/27/2002 1:40:21 AM
From: Pink Minion	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10921

Not that I pay much attention to forecast: siliconstrategies.com Wired communications chip sales will drop again due to carrier cuts, says report Semiconductor Business News (01/25/02 17:04 p.m. EST) EL SEGUNDO, Calif. -- Semiconductor suppliers serving wired communications applications will market revenues drop 19.7% in 2002 to about $14 billion from last year's sales of $17.4 billion, according to a new forecast by iSuppli Corp. here. Wired communications application are being pulled down by an additional 23% reduction in capital spending this year by global telecom carriers, which had cut their budget 21% in 2001, said market research firm. Semiconductor sales for wired communications systems will be nearly flat in 2003 at just a little over $14 billion, followed by a 4.2% increase in revenues to $14.6 billion, said iSuppli in a new report. "Performance had been a major market driver for semiconductor usage in wired communications through 2000, but the fastest solution will no longer win the day," said analyst Steve Rago, who wrote the report, called "Thriving on Carrier Capex Chaos." "Cost and flexibility are the wired communications market drivers going forward, with products offering adequate performance leading the way," he said. "In addition, semiconductor suppliers expanding emphasis on system-on-a-chip (SoC) devices will find themselves in better competitive shape than those continuing to focus on discrete solutions. This is becauseSoCs offer equal or more functionality to systems builders in a single integrated device, thereby reducing chip counts and required broad real estate to lower overall system costs." Wire semiconductor sales dropped 20.7% in 2001 from $22 billion in 2000, according to iSuppli. From 2003 to 2005 carrier-driven semiconductor revenues will grow globally at just 4% per year, while developing countries--primarily in Asia--will grow at a 6% rate, said the El Segundo-based research firm.

To: Pink Minion who wrote (10115)	1/27/2002 1:12:50 PM
From: Kirk ©	Respond to of 10921

Wake up, PC growth DECLINED FOR THE FIRST TIME EVER last year. The days of +20% growth are over. I take it you believe China and India will not increase the size of their middle class? I think if the middle class in China goes up 5% and they each buy a PC that it probably equals the number of PCs in the US... (just waving arms to make a point... could be off by a factor of two or three, easily...) but 20% revenue growth could be out of the question... but perhaps not unit growth. As I said, MSFT and Intel were great buys for me in 1993, not today... Today, I'm betting on small and mid caps in last mile, wireless and chips like CACS and Agilent. Kirk