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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (10127)	1/27/2002 11:42:09 PM
From: Sam Citron	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10921

I contend that semi-equips with smaller caps merit those smaller caps...and their market cap probably reflects an efficient market. It's nice to see a defense of the efficient market hypothesis for a change. <g> Enron's recent position as our 7th largest company notwithstanding, I think we might both agree that the market is generally at least "semi-strong form efficient". The problem is that investors sometimes pay too dearly for the greater reliability that large caps usually afford. I do not know if that is the case within the semi-equipment industry, but it might be worthwhile to at least consider the possibility, as I know of no larger pure-play semi-equips than AMAT, ASML, KLAC and NVLS. Remember that modern portfolio theory [MPT] says that a diversified portfolio can mitigate the risks of lesser quality individual issues and in totality provide a better return over time than a portfolio of the bluest of blue chips. AMAT isn't likely to lose 1/3 to 1/2 of its revenue if a competitor favored by 2/3 of its customers finally gets its act in order. Are you implying that CYMI is in such a vulnerable position? If so, could you please name the competitor and estimate the likelihood of their "getting their act in order"? It is crystal clear that you only want to buy the safest and best companies at fire-sale prices. But it is quite possible that there is a certain opportunity cost that you may pay for the safety suggested by your well honed conservative instincts. Sam

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (10127)	1/28/2002 6:40:43 AM
From: scott_jiminez	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10921

Well, finally, we can put Cary's money where his mouth is.... After alluding to his investing acumen for years - in the absence of any direct proof - we, the ignorant masses of SI who await his every syllable of wisdom, at long last have specific stocks to hang his oh so brilliant words on. So, welcome to the 'Cary vs. Cary....NOT' semi stock picking contest. I have created 2 purely hypothetical $100,000 portfolios, using the closing prices of 1/25/02: 1. 'Cary's' portfolio, based on the eight selections listed in his post 10127 siliconinvestor.com 2. 'Cary's....NOT' portfolio, based on eight mid- and small cap semi stocks, the type that Herr Cary so despises, using a highly subjective technique involving astrology and my friend, Madame Hubris siliconinvestor.com We'll return to these every so often to compare the performances.