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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (10128)	1/28/2002 1:20:15 AM
From: Pink Minion	Respond to of 10921

I am not sure if you are short, intermediate, or long term bearish I trade so I have no/few long term positions (I am a stuckholder in ROBV). I think were are due for a five year bear market but that's only looking at history. I'm quite prepared in being wrong. I seem, like most on these threads, to disagree with you, but I think dissenting views are very important at SI because analytical discussion is often overwhelmed by herd cheerleading. I usually go against the crowd but try to trade with the trend. This has to be the first downturn ever where everyone is still so bullish. It has to be that left over Kool-Aid from the Bubble party. Wall Street has already priced in a recovery. I personally think it is the only place the funds can hide. Definitely different than 98 or 96. Please describe the time frame for your bearishness and what if anything will cause you to change your position. When I see the wireless segment or another segment at 50+% since that is the only big segment I see having hypergrowth. The industry has enjoyed a 65% (down from 75% in 1995) PC segment growth rate of 20 plus percent. I just think the risk is there that those days are over. It also has to rely on a upgrade cycle and I know that will lengthen without a killer app. It seems saturation to me when my 75 year old parents have 3 computers. My main point is that the average decline in ASP for all chips is something like -%10. It would seem the only savior is that demand grows faster than 10 percent. Small growth or minus is disasterous.