STOCK ANALYSIS SUMMARIES - ONE LAST MONSTER POST! I'm oughta here.
<Disclaimer at the bottom of the post>
Am I the hardest working weekend stock warrior (i.e. make that "idiot") you've ever seen? Dam right! <g> I did take some time to catch the NFL playoff games today, though. Good stuff.
STOCK ANALYSIS - ALLY
Clearstation:
clearstation.etrade.com.
Stocks chart is so strong that is has barely penetrated the 13 day MA, let alone the 50 day. However the stochastics are leaning towards overbought and the fast line is falling below the slow one.
Bigcharts.com:
The 30 day Bollinger bands are at 26 and 34, with the 20MA at 30. Money flow and momentum have been strong for almost 2 weeks. PE is now well over 20 though, up from under 10 a few months ago.
Conclusion:
Personally I don't like gaming stocks much as they are too trendy and prone to sudden weakness, but at $30, it might be expected to bounce off the 20 Sma or if the market or sector turns weak, might test the 50 Sma @ $27.80.
STOCK ANALYSIS: FTO
For a stock in the oil and gas sector, this has been strong and still has a very low relative PE.
Clearstation:
Very extended chart is 11.50% above the 13 day sma. Stochastics look ready to roll over in the high overbought area. May have been bid up as a Barron's takeover play. Looks like a nice short for a point or two, but is a wonderful long once it pulls back to support
clearstation.etrade.com.
bigcharts:
The stock is .75 pts above the top line on the B-band. The low line is at 15.50 and a pullback to the 20 day sma at $17.25 or the 50 sma at 16.55 would make much more intriguing entry points.
Conclusion: Odds favor a short at some point soon. The oil and gas sector has been strong for several days in a row. As soon as the OSX has a down day, a short would make sense. But as I don't normally short, I would wait for a much more attractive entry point. It could go higher but I would not chase it here.
STOCK ANALYSIS: ACRT
Overview: Volatile and risky stock - I would only do a short term trade. Just my H.O. Company recently had an excellent earnings report but stock did not react well.
Interesting reads as to perhaps why:
clearstation.etrade.com.
clearstation.etrade.com.
Clearstation:
The chart doesn't show it but this just dropped below the 13 and 50 day SMA. Stochastics look like they want to roll over again.
clearstation.etrade.com.
Bigcharts:
Huge down day on Friday after 9 trading days of positive momentum flow took the stock below lowere B-band support. Anything can happen here.
Conclusion - stock too hard to read for me. Maybe somebody else can figure out how far this might drop but once a stock breaks support, you just have to watch for the selling to slow down. So far it hasn't. There are many more stocks where your bounce point is much easier to calculate with some certainly. This one's a crap shoot.
STOCK ANALYSIS DROOY
Cheapie stocks are less accurate when doing T/A:
Here's a comment from a Clearstation member -
"First got in after the strike last fall (a bit early). Have traded in and out since then but I'll go for a longer timeframe now that the uptrend is sure. DROOY has been in a bear market for many years and has now entered stage 1 of a new bull. As long as gold remains above ~270 and DROOY stays in a long term uptrend (above the 200ema) I'll hold this one. Will look to add on retracements. There are a host of other goodies in this sector as well (GLG, KGC, AEM, GG, MDG, HGMCY, NEM) and will look to add these on weekness."
Clearstation:
Good RS of 83, has been behaving very nicely since mid-Dec. Good average daily volume.
clearstation.etrade.com.
Conclusion:
Bears more research. Must watch the gold market for strength and talk to teh company about prospects. At the very least time your entry on a high volume day when the gold sector looks particularly strong.
STOCK ANALYSIS: RDY - fascinating article, Smart!
Overview: Interesting India drug company that reverse engineers blockbuster drugs developed by other companies without regard to patent infringement, legal per India law. Still, it is somewhat open to lawsuits which could intensify risk a bit. Successful IPO here last year.
Clearstation:
Not enough data points
Bigcharts:
Money flow has recently been negative, momentum good but tailing off. Near the upper B-band; safer entry point near 20 at the 20day sma at 19.50 @ the 50 day sma.
Conclusion:
I almost wouldn't consider this trade until the volume ramps up. At just over 100K avg. volume it is more prone to manipulation. It is worth watching though because earnings are coming up Jan. 29th.. Be aware that after the last earnings and C.C., the stock dropped about 3 points.
Stock Analysis: NBTY
This is an interesting stock fueled by a recent solid earnings report and reasonable PE. Good watch list candidate. Vitamin whosesaler that is gaining market share and recently acquired a profitable company. Probably a good baby-boomer stock.
Clearstation:
RS of 96, 13-day sma recently crossed above 50-day, but stock is 21+% above the 13-day line signaling that it may be overextended. The fast line is bumping into the ceiling in the overbought area. It certainly could go a little higher since momentum is so strong, but I would much rather wait for a pullback to safer levels of support.
Bigcharts:
Money flow and momentum extremely strong. When this stock goes, it really attracts attention and buying. More than a point above the upper B-band, with the 20 and 50-day ema point way down at 11.7 and 11.1.
Conclusion:
Great stock for the watch list. When it pulls back and volume picks up again, I want to be there. The question is how soon and how far will it pull back? Also, one caveat, in late Oct. it fell over 5 points in 2 trading days, so even though it has a very high RS it can be volatile especially arounf earnings.
STOCK ADDED TO WATCHLIST: DFXI
Powerful stock that fits the baby-boomer generation to a "T". Bowflex and Nautilus sleep system sales were up substantially and the weak advertising market helped control costs for their infomerricials. Recent acquisitions of Schwinn Fitness and bankrupt Stairmaster and powerful earnings last week make this a potential buy on pullbacks.
Clearstation:
Good R/S of 84, this stock had a weak perion in late-summer-late fall, but has not broached the 50-day sma since. It often breaks below the 13-day, which often has made for good entry points. Currently about 6% above the 13-day with strong intermeidate trend but oversold stochastics, I am watching this one.
Bigcharts.com:
B-Bands are 27.20 to 37.80 with 33.25 the 20day support line. That might be about the best entry point one could hope for. MACD very strong, money much beter last 2 days, momentum consistently above average.
Conclusion: Watch, wait and hope for 33.25-ish.
clearstation.etrade.com.
Stock Analysis: BORL - added to watchlist; nearing possible SHORT TERM BUY POINT
Positive outlook and good performance on recent earnings.
Want to become the .net standard. Recent acquisition of VM Gear lets developers optimize code, which CEO feels will reinforce their leadership of the Java market and add to revenues. Reasonable PE of 35 or so for FY2002 and 25 on FY2003.
Clearstation:
Has been strong since late Oct. when the 13-day ma line crossed above the 50-day. Stochastic approaching oversold; has its first down day in the last 5 on Friday. Ran up prior to earnings, but now barely above the 50-day sma which it tends to break a little below from time to time.
Bigcharts.com
B-bands at 14.60 and 17.25. The 20 and 50-day sma's are @15.95 and 15.40. Money flow, MACD, and momentum have all been below average the last 8-9 days, suggesting that the slight runup last week might have been artificially induced by the MM's.
Stockconsultant.com:
Only gives a short term bullish rating of 45% even though short term targets, they say, favor a run up more than down. A bit curious.
Support: 15.2 ± 0.55, type triple, strength 9
Resistance: 17.1 ± 0.62, type double, strength 7
LONG TRADE:
TARGET 1 Price: 19.39 Profit: 23.9%
Stop Limit/Trailing Stop Limit: 14.68 Loss: 6.2%
Profit/Loss Ratio: 3.85 : 1 - Excellent
TARGET 1 POTENTIAL Good, there are 1 resistance areas on the way to Target 1
SHORT TRADE:
TARGET 1 Price: 11.96 Profit: 23.6%
Cover Limit/Trailing Cover Limit: 16.87 Loss: 7.8%
Profit/Loss Ratio: 3.03 : 1 - Good
TARGET 1 POTENTIAL Poor, there are 4 support areas on the way to Target 1
Conclusion:
Watch money flow and whether it holds the 50-day sma. It looks like it may break down a little more, but $15-ish could be an excellent entry point, especially in a favorable market. Software stocks are the best area in tech.
Stock analysis: ESST - Adding to Watchlist, Bruce
Interesting, not good short term technicals overall, but bounce point may be near if the market/SOX co-operates.
Clearstation:
Has recently broken below the 50-day sma for the first time since early October. MACD looks fairly poor but the stochastics look oversold. RS rating of 90. Mixed signals.
Bigcharts:
B-band lines are at 18.80 and 25.40. Stock is barely above the lower band. Money flow and momentum reading poor. Watch for a turnaround in money flow and momentum before entering long.
Stockconsulant.com:
CURRENT PRICE 19.48, at support, 19.4 ± 0.84, type triple, strength 10
Upside Trade:
TARGET 1 Price: 25.56 Profit: 31.2%
Stop Limit/Trailing Stop Limit: 17.8 Loss: 8.62%
Profit/Loss Ratio: 3.62 : 1 - Good
TARGET 1 POTENTIAL Good, there are 1 resistance areas on the way to Target 1
Downside Trade:
TARGET 1 Price: 15.98 Profit: 18%
Cover Limit/Trailing Cover Limit: 21.28 Loss: 9.24%
Profit/Loss Ratio: 1.95 : 1 - Poor
TARGET 1 POTENTIAL Excellent, there are 2 support areas on the way to Target 1
Conclusion:
Although it has broken below the 50-day sma, it could bounce soon. Stockconsultants has a strong short term bullish rating and a triple strength support low on about 18.60. But I would need to see much improved money flow and good SOX performance next week. Good one to watch.
STOCK ANALYSIS: GTW
Clearstation:
It's all pretty ugly on the technicals. RS=21. Not anything that promises much hope yet except the possible slight bounces one might get at 4-something or possibly $5.00 before likely falling again. Only some positive news will likely help it in teh very short term. If it can stablize for a month or two, it could start to rise.
Bigcharts:
The 3M (money flow, MACD, momentum) all down. Only hope is the lower B-band line of $4.95 and the 52wk low@ $4.24. Even there I am not sure it would mount much of a run.
Stockconsultant:
Favors odds of a slight rise more than I do. They do rate it a hold over the next 1-6 weeks with a possible target in the mid-$7's with a stop loss around $4.72.
STOCK ANALYSIS: MENT - Adding to watch list - possible long trade very close.
Clearstation:
RS=78; stock price barely above the 13 and 50-day sma. Chart has been nicely positive since October like many others but has often dipped well below the 13, but never breached the 50-day sma. Recent good earnings may help prevent that again, but its stochastic is starting to get near overbought levels. Still room to rise though.
Bigcharts:
B-bands at 23.10 and 26.90 with 20 and 50 day support at 25 and 24. Momentum, OBV, and money flow all mildly positive last 3 days or so.
Stockconsulant:
85% bullish reading.
Upside Trade Upside Trade Help, Trade indicators for long trades.
TARGET 1 Price: 31.08 Profit: 20.7%
Stop Limit/Trailing Stop Limit: 23.67 Loss: 8.11%
Profit/Loss Ratio: 2.55 : 1 - Good
TARGET 1 POTENTIAL Excellent, there are 0 resistance areas on the way to Target 1
Downside:
TARGET 1 Price: 18.97 Profit: 26.4%
Cover Limit/Trailing Cover Limit: 27.38 Loss: 6.29%
Profit/Loss Ratio: 4.2 : 1 - Excellent
TARGET 1 POTENTIAL Poor, there are 3 support areas on the way to Target 1
TARGET 1 SUPPORT -8.31% at 23.6 ± 0.82, type triple, strength 10
Conclusion:
I would be surprised to see this drop below 24. There is triple strength 10 support at about 24. It has a chance to run to 31 over the next few weeks if the market co-operates.
Excellent R/R.
clearstation.etrade.com.
STOCK ANALYSIS: SNWL - Adding to Watchlist and close to a buy
Company matched or slightly exceeded consensus in EPS and revs. They are an internet security company that has successful taken market share from competitors. Looks good for 2002.
Clearstation:
RS = 84; technicals look much better than average. Big runup on Friday caused it to close back above the 13 and 50-day sma, a positive. Stochastics are nowhere near sold out.
Bigcharts:
B-bands at about 17.75 and 21.15. The 50 day sma is at about 19.50. Money flow and momentum mildly positive, OBV (on Balance Volume) has been excellent for a few weeks.
Stockconsultant:
BREAKOUT Watch for POSSIBLE breakout above 22.95, no resistance in area just above.
Type: True breakout from triple resistance.
Target: 27.6, +35.3%
Upside Trade:
TARGET 1 Price: 26.35 Profit: 29.4%
Stop Limit/Trailing Stop Limit: 17.39 Loss: 14.6%
Profit/Loss Ratio: 2.01 : 1 - Fair
TARGET 1 POTENTIAL Excellent, there are 0 resistance areas on the way to Target 1
Downside:
TARGET 1 Price: 11.52 Profit: 43.4%
Cover Limit/Trailing Cover Limit: 22.3 Loss: 9.53%
Profit/Loss Ratio: 4.55 : 1 - Excellent
TARGET 1 POTENTIAL Poor, there are 3 support areas on the way to Target 1
TARGET 1 SUPPORT -8.99% at 18.5 ± 0.98, type triple+, strength 10
Conclusion:
Downside risk probably no more than $18.50 with an upside of $27 in the next few weeks. Of course the Naz must co-operate for us to reach those heights. Excellent R/R. A drop to support at 19.50 would be a superb entry point.
STOCK ANALYSIS: RATL - adding to watchlist and perhaps close to buy point
Software stocks have been strong and this one has been near the top in leaders.
Clearstation:
RS = 90, technicals all look good, although the stochastics are starting to get near overbought. Since Nov. 1, the stock has rarely breached the 13-day sma and has not come close to the 50. With the stock only 5% above the 13, it looks unlikely the stock will fall back much, unless the market tanks or there is some company specific news that investors don't like.
Bigcharts:
B-bands 19-24.85; Momentum and OBV very strong last 2 weeks, money flow slightly negative which is curious to me
Stockconsultant:
80% bullish reading
Upside Trade:
TARGET 1 Price: 30.43 Profit: 27.2%
Stop Limit/Trailing Stop Limit: 20.98 Loss: 12.3%
Profit/Loss Ratio: 2.21 : 1 - Fair
TARGET 1 POTENTIAL Excellent, there are 1 resistance areas on the way to Target 1
Downside:
TARGET 1 Price: 14.37 Profit: 39.9%
Cover Limit/Trailing Cover Limit: 26.03 Loss: 8.82%
Profit/Loss Ratio: 4.52 : 1 - Excellent
TARGET 1 POTENTIAL Poor, there are 3 support areas on the way to Target 1
TARGET 1 SUPPORT -10.6% at 21.4 ± 1.22, type single, strength 3
Conclusion:
Good chance to outperform next few weeks relative to other techs and even stocks in its own sector. Run toward 30 possible; downside risk to 21-ish (first support) or of course lower if market tanks. Remember 19 is the lower B-band support. Good R/R trade especially if it retraces toward 21/22 for no fundamental reason.
STOCK ANALYSIS: DGX - adding to watchlist
Overview courtesy of Baton:
Dave: I've mentioned this one before - Quest Diagnostics (DGX). It is the largest lab test company in the US. If you have ever had blood or other tests disease related tests through your doctor, chances are that Quest did the actual test results. They are fairly recession proof since insurance companies pay the bulk of the test fees. They are growing in size and earnings and have made a couple of large, successful acquisitions.
Clearstation:
RS = 41 fairly poor, regularly breaks below the 13 day ema line and the 50 day line too. Looks to be running into earnings a bit, which raises a bit of a caution flag if they at all disappoint. Stochastics though are nowhere near oversold. MACD is very healthy and even notice how the horizontal line is closer to the bottom than the top.
Bigcharts:
B-bands = 66.50 to 74; 20 and 50-day support levels at 67 and 70. Money flow, momentum, and OBV are all positive but the OBV is trending toward flat, which is its worst reading in about 2 weeks.
Conclusion:
Would love to see this pullback to the 20 day line at $70 for an entry or better yet wait until after earnings for possible profit-taking and pullback. Stocks that have already run into earnings are less attractive.
DISCLAIMER: If you're still awake, these are my opinion as an amateur sleuth and T/A Guy. Do your OWN DD. Believe no one by but yourself. If you buy on anyone's elses advide or date, it is YOU who are responsible. Besides if you trust me that much, I shouldn't be doing this for free. LOL! |
