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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Moominoid who wrote (14097)	1/28/2002 10:03:54 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 74559

<As it has never been at 16000 how could a 4 year moving average get to 16000?> [by the end of February] David, it can't! Call me sloppy. I meant that if we look back along this Dow graph since 1928 finance.yahoo.com^DJI&d=c&t=my&l=on&z=b&q=l and straighten out all the kinks, so that over 5 year periods it's smooth instead of bumpy, the 1987 crash would be invisible, there would be a constant rise from 1980 until 2005, a flat patch from 1965 through to 1980 [understandable given the events of the times such as oil from $2 to $40 a barrel, Vietnam, the gold standard and stuff] and a long constant rise from the depths of the depression until 1965. I think Y2K is a kink in the curve, not a 1928 to 1948 huge valley. Therefore, looking back from a vantage point in 2010, we'll see a 1987 to 1990 type flat patch if we look closely enough. If we make it a 5 year smoothing, to really get the trends, it'll be invisible. And that Dow trend will go right through 16,000 at the incredible palindromic time and date 20.02 20.02.2002 which is also when the triple-witching 10,000 of the Hang Seng, Nikkei and Dow will occur in an amazing cusp of history as humans soar off into The Major Paradigm Shift happening in the new technological world of CDMA and CDNA. Alternatively, something else might happen as there are still a few variables in the quantum wave functions which I haven't included in the calculations. Since the smoothed curve will go through 16,000 on 20.02.2002, that means that at 10,000 the Dow is a great bargain. People can expect a 50% capital gain when the graph returns to the long term trend. The graph is not an arbitrary line of pixels; it represents the lives, energies, creativity, families, fun, friends, desires, drives and hopes of 6 billion post Y2K cyberspace-people on a planet where, at the beginning of the curve, there were 1 billion people living mainly agricultural, relatively subsistence lives, with horse and gig, lye soap, copper and hearth [for the well-off]. The industrial revolution was still young at the beginning of the 20th century. Mqurice