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Gold/Mining/Energy : Nuvo Research Inc -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: DaveAu who wrote (8544)	1/28/2002 12:15:33 PM
From: Cal Gary	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 14101

Hi Dave I'll have to go with Joe on this, they 'formally' announced July 18 to acquire OXO 'as soon as the blind was lifted'. The blind was originally expected June 2001, but confirmed to be early-mid July 2001. " The company expects to enter into a definitive purchase agreement during its second fiscal quarter, at which time further details of the transaction will be made available. " Appears that the milestone haven't been reached yet. If WF10 is a failure, DMX will walk away with no further obligation Such as life in the business world. I like their approach to acquiring OXO. It does minimize the 'real' risk that you accurately mention. But remember, they've been in bed with OXO for almost a decade. Its not a new relationship that's in the infatuation stage. Despite their history together, DMX is going by the book by following good business principles of DD, milestones, and process. Thumbs up. The Phase III results can range from excellent to failure. Until the results are published, investors can only use tools and indicators. Our DD is to place probabilities along that range. The more DMX releases about the WF10, ie intention to buy out OXO, the bulk of probabilities shift with new info towards the marginal to good range. If WF10 is a dud, I expect management to walk away immediately. I'd stay with the company despite a probable price drop to account for the writeoff of past OXO investment. Now if WF10 was a dud, and management went ahead anyways. Then investors find out later, my fingers would be on the trigger in an instant. That would be a major management boo boo. If the Phase III results' probabilites range were 5 scale: failure poor marginal good excellent Fast tracking FDA is possible with excellent results. It could even mean moving from salvage to second or first line status. Lower probability. But at what point would it no longer make sense to pursue the regular FDA filing as a salvage therapy? When does the benefits to HIV/AID patients do not justify pursuing the FDA filing for market and DMX do not pursue the acquisition??? Not pursuing the acquistion means we still own 20% of OXO and a lot of junk Notes. OXO will be moved into bankruptcy! REK will make sure of this. She has the background. You never know, but even going this path, DMX might even get all of OXO in the end. There is only two shareholders in OXO according to NR. Of course this just not the course REK nor investors want. Dr Kuhne is the brain child behind WF10. The Phase III has everything against it. The enrolled patients are VERY ill. I wouldn't go as far to say these enrollees were expected to die, but definitely very ill. So far, we know Phase III past 4 FDA conducted safety reviews when enough adverse events occurred to conduct the investigation and ruling. The Phase III made it to 'fully enrolled' milestone, and 'completion'. We've beaten soom of the odds against. Unfortunately, this is not reflected in our share price. Other junior pharmas jump big on these baby step milestones. Look at COX IIs with good Phase III (six months data) with long list of side effects on the label. But look again COX II with 1 year data results. Not so NICE! But they still own $5 billion market share! The moral of the story is we don't need 20 years of data nor earth shattering phase III results to get to market.