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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: combjelly who wrote (69277)	1/28/2002 1:46:00 PM
From: hmaly	Respond to of 275872

Combjelly Re...AMD said they were demand limited in the fourth quarter." The problem is everyone, especially Elmer, is trying to equate "demand limited" to mean "capacity limited", when in fact it means no such thing. Why. Because as you point out later in the post, it takes a full quarter to get from the start of production to the finish product. Thus, the amount of wafer starts is determined by anticipated demand, or anticipated 4q sales, as determined by expected sales from the 2nd quarter, allowing for seasonal variations, and normal sales growth. AMD probably had no idea of the hot demand for the XP,(the XP and the quantispeed ratings weren't on the market yet) in the second quarter, when they would have had to set 3rd quarter production goals to meet 4 q sales. Hector did say in the 4q-01 CC that AMD had limited their production to anticipated sales. Over 90% of manufacturing corp. do that. Why the surprise.? And he did say that AMD will have the capacity to produce 40 - 50 mil cpu in Dresden, when all of the lines are converted to .13 um. I assume that means at current yields, or expected yields at 100% capacity production. If Elmer wants to figure the yields,why not calculate what yield AMD would get from 45 mil cpu, at AMD's average die size at .13 um, running 5000 wpw. That should get pretty close to actual expected yields. But then why would he when Elmer is on a mission to prove the opposite.

To: combjelly who wrote (69277)	1/28/2002 2:24:56 PM
From: Elmer	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 275872

Until Q401, AMD was pretty upfront with the mix relative mix of Durons and Athlons, either giving a precise number, or giving a general one (about half). For Q401 they broke with that pattern. All they would tell us is that Athlons substantially outsold Durons. I believe their phrase was "favorable" when describing the Athlon to Duron ratio, again another undefined term that won't bring another lawsuit. They did say they manufactured over 4 million XPs in Q4, but they didn't say how many were sold.....Clearly, they intended everyone to believe that they sold 4 million XPs, but they didn't actually do that. More doublespeak. Another point to mention is that inventories were down slightly suggesting they sold more than they could make, but more what? EP