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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: AC Flyer who wrote (14131)	1/28/2002 5:26:50 PM
From: LLCF	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Great, so housing will be a so so investment like it always has been... whatever... I certainly agree with him that the S&P is a much better short. Meanwhile: biz.yahoo.com biz.yahoo.com TXN reducing capex by 50%. DAK

To: AC Flyer who wrote (14131)	1/28/2002 5:38:36 PM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Here's what Stephen Roach at Morgan Stanley has to say: that piece was not even written by Roach. it was written by Berner. besides, it's not really like the RE market needs to crash. it has been booming and keeping the economy from toppling over. there is little upside for an incremental pickup which would contribute to the economy, although there is potential downside if the boom pace slackens.

To: AC Flyer who wrote (14131)	1/28/2002 6:20:14 PM
From: reaper	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

<<The residential real estate slowdown continues - NOT! Part II>> Just change the words a little and you could have an article from March 2000 about the telecom buildout -- favorable demand, lean inventories (relative to THEN CURRENT demand), signed contracts from buyers, etc. etc. etc. The capital markets are NOT imposing discipline here -- they are throwing gobs of money at a non-productive asset. This works as long as there is more capital (in classic ponzi fashion) but IF capital availability ever levels off, the whole thing comes unwound. Demand falls (due to lack of credit), inventory skyrockets, and prices collapse. The median home price is up 10%-ish this year. My home in Boston bought for under $600k in summer of 1999 was just appraised for over $1mm. Balance sheets at Fannie & Freddie are growing at 25% annualized rates. Housing turnover is up roughly 50% in 5 years. Home equity at a generational low (in terms of %), putting housing leverage at a generational high. If it walks like a bubble, quacks like a bubble.... Cheers