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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: AC Flyer who wrote (14161)	1/29/2002 1:10:40 AM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

<The long term DOW channel is a bit less, um, inspiring. The bottom of the 70 year DOW channel for January, 2005 would be somewhere around, say, 3,000. But the top of the long term channel for January, 2005 might be as high as, er, 10,000! :) > ACF, I haven't tried channeling, but I hear there are some great spooks in the astral sphere who can tell us what's up. On the 70 years business, keep in mind that for most of that time, there was a gold standard at $35 an ounce. That pinned things down quite a bit. Then, in the early 1970s, when the standard was ditched, there was an immediate 7 years of vast oil price increases and fallout on an economy fed by oil. People now have forgotten just how big oil was in the economy back then. Since then, the dollar has floated free with the torque and tachometer set by Uncle Al. The sky's the limit. Just as the universe seems infinitely inflationary, so is the dollar. It's built into the physics of existence. So, while the whole 20th century is interesting, the real action has been in the past quarter century. The past decade is what really counts. I'm long enough in the tooth to know that markets are perverse and it can take years for people to respond to what is obvious. For example, oil trebled in price from Dec 1998 and simultaneously, the dot.com and tech.stock and tele.cosm irrational exuberance had to go pop. But it took two years for the hit to come - I was amazed it took so long. Now those three are in the realms of sense and the contamination of the sensible Dow is not likely to worsen. Maybe it will take 4 or 5 years for the Dow value to be recognized. Interest rates as low as they are will press the process. Mq