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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: michael97123 who wrote (59602)	1/29/2002 9:47:09 AM
From: advocatedevil	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 70976

ST - Trading FWIW, I initiated a short-term short play here averaged at $43.17 (3,000 shares - I may just hold this one for a little while this time) AdvocateDevil

To: michael97123 who wrote (59602)	1/29/2002 11:57:46 AM
From: runes	Respond to of 70976

A different take - look at driving forces. Right now the current high speed options - DSL and cable are adequately meeting the needs of the general public. In fact these technologies are still on a strong growth curve. IMO - you won't see anyone pushing into the next gen technologies until there is a need which will support the higher costs which are needed to finance the investment. Here, I believe John is right on the mark - the driver will be digital video. But, while digital video is starting to gain momentum, it will still take some time before the general public starts demanding video-at-home services. On top of which there is an active opposition - the MPAA (Motion Picture Assoc of Amer) who has already seen RIA (Recording Industry of Amer) win the battle but lose the war over MP3. You can see their presence in the Digital Millenium Copyright Act, and vigorous prosecution of those who dare to hack DVD encryption. So, no - I don't expect to see a rush to higher bandwidths in a couple years. If one follows the MP3 migration to the web, we are probably looking to the last half of the decade before the demand materializes. If MPAA is successful, even longer (Like RIA, they have an entire distribution system to protect). PS - add another growth element to digital video. Just got myself roped into editing and burning my niece's wedding video - to be shot with a digi-cam and burned onto CD (maybe DVD).

To: michael97123 who wrote (59602)	1/30/2002 8:09:18 PM
From: John Trader	Respond to of 70976

OT "Moron's Law", Mike, Sorry for the delayed response. I think Runes made several good points, for example, about the motion picture industry resistance to broadband. I I think he is right that this will have a negative impact. I would not want to even guess as to when digital-video broadband will arrive, or even when the current version of broadband will arrive in large numbers (current cable modem or DSL connections). I just know that it would be a really good thing for technology investors, and for everyone else I think as well. I feel like some cave man wondering when the wheel will be adopted, but totally unable to have any effect on it. The bandwidth industry seems impossible to figure out. They were all wrong about it year ago ("big time", as they say), and that destroyed the credibility of the "experts" in my mind. The chip industry seems almost simple in comparison. I guess the reason I have brought this topic up several times on this thread is because I am hoping someone smarter or more knowledgeable than I will enlighten me, or that we can collectively figure it out somehow. Plus it really does affect the future growth of AMAT. There have been many good responses, and I have appreciated that. If anyone can figure out how broadband adoption is going to go, then I agree there is a lot of money that can be made. Several years ago there was an interesting WSJ article about Metcalf (sp?) the founder of 3Com, and his views on this. He seems like a really good man, and he is a big supporter of broadband adoption. He said the RBOC's operate under "Moron's Law", rather than Moore's Law, as we have here in the chip industry. It was very funny, but I think he was right, and still is. He pointed out that the RBOC's had DSL technology a long time ago but did not deploy it. Back when that article was written you could not see the impact yet on the tech industry, so it seemed more funny than urgent. Now it seems more urgent and less funny. I have the hard copy of the article, but not the the electronic version. John