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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LLCF who wrote (14184)	1/29/2002 7:56:38 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

<So you wouldn't buy DOW 150,000K today?? Ok, what is overvalued in your book??? THATS the point... the number exists.> I wouldn't buy at 150,000 because I'm a market investigator and timer and like to earn much better than the long term average growth rate of the markets. Those who don't have the inclination or ability or luck can still get the market average increase by using your expert abilities for no charge by simply buying the market wherever it happens to be. They can also simultaneously use Jay's, ACFs, John Shannon's and Warren Buffet's and hordes of highly capable analysts' abilities, all without charge. Those people [and me] are all seething around looking for opportunities where there's an under or over valuation. Then there are the neural net mathematicians doing the same and using derivatives to smooth the markets by looking for statistical variations which need to be filled. There are so many people hunting bargains that a novice is wasting their time trying to find one themselves. They might as well just accept that they will get the average return and go with that by just buying the index on a regular basis wherever it happens to be. It will never be so far away from a sensible valuation as your silly 150,000 so they will never have the opportunity to get such a bargain. There are too many experts ahead of them in the hunt. So, it's true! To get the index profits, there's no need to try to think. Just use the market as a store of value in which to dump savings every couple of months, irrespective of where it is. That will mean the saver will never beat the market, but neither will the market ever beat them. It's only moving big lumps around that the losses [and gains] happen in a big way. Mq