Is that hairy arsed carpenter still out there with his big stick? (ggggggggggggg)
My read on DMX is still not good unless they get FDA approval shortly and the marketing mavens really start beating the bushes with really big sticks.
I'll probably get chit again but here goes.
Industry:
Biotechs are moving down in general,...they were inflated in the bubble and many have still not come down to reflect their earnings, potential benefits, and the fact that the human body just isn't an easy thing to screw around with. With all the feedback mechanisms, regulating mechanisms and other -isms,...it is extremely difficult to introduce something new into the system without doing some damage somewhere else.
Company:
Not meetings its goals and predictions very well.
Pennsaid:
I have the same concerns,...possible skin damage with long term use and marketing is going to mean changing customers present habits and perceptions, which is always an expensive and long term thing to do.
I still note that no one has adequately answered the question of how DMSO facilitates entry of the NSAID through the barrier of the epidermis to get access to that microtubule intra and inter cellular transport system. The outer cells of the skin are dead and heavily keratinized. There is no functioning microtubule transport system in these cells. The outer layer is there to stop everything from penetrating it and invading the interior of the body. It is my theory that DMSO dissolves holes in it to allow the NSAID to get to cells that can transport the molecule to the site of pain. DMSO or the NSAID, or some complex of the two also have to get across a membrane into a cell to get access to the transport system you are all so fond of talking about.
So one or more layers of dead cells must be breached, and passage through a differentially permeable membrane must occur as well. I figure the dead layer gets dissolved by DMSO,....and this creates an avenue for bacteria and other bad things to get in and cause infections. That is why I theorize that the long term use that is needed to relieve the constant pain of someone with progressive arthritis is going to increase the chances that irritation at the application site will occur. Not a question of if,...but when. When this happens, it will probably discourage use of the topical, and patients will fall back to pills.
If the above is the case, then long term users, which I imagine is the bulk of that Billions of dollar potential market everyone keeps talking about (20% of your customers generally gives you 80% of your business,...and those would be the chronic users) then it kind of decreases the expected revenues expected somewhat, in my mind anyway.
Of course if they made the lotion an "over the counter" cure all for the weekend athlete and aging boomer for aches and pains of muscles and joints,...things could change. But that would likely take a massive and expensive marketing effort,...something like those Robaxicet ads. I fear the health boards will force Pennsaid into "Prescription Purgatory" for many years of evaluation before allowing "over the counter" availability.
Then there is that graph on the website entitled "Pennsaid Open Investigational New Drug (IND)" It shows early adoption was swift 1996-1000 users, 1997-2000 users (a double), 1998-3200 users (growth is slowing), 1999-3700 users (some growth, but really tailing off). Something nags in me that for a drug with no significant side effects, that is so easy to use, that is so revolutionary in operation, that doctors are so excited about, that the benefits to patients is so obvious,....should have had users doubling or tripling every year for many years, at least in my mind, even if it was just a temporary open investigation.
WF10: AIDS research,
The reason I posted those articles on the AIDS vaccines, is because the vaccines are targeting the same good macrophages that WF10 is said to target. WF10 will increase the numbers of the phagocytosing macrophages,...but if those cells don't know what to eat they aren't much good. The aids virus is a master of hiding itself from the bodies immune system. It is mutating all the time. The vaccine allows the uninfected macrophages to modify themselves to identify what things to look for on the surface of infected macrophages and other immune system cells, so the good macrophages can eat the infected ones up. So WF10, alone may temporary improve the symptoms of Aids, and relieve many of the opportunistic infections, but the disease will progress,... in my mind anyway. This reduces the value and potential revenues of the drug for this use.
WF10: for regulating and modulating abnormal immune responses such as auto immune diseases and at sites of chronic infections,...
Now here we may be cooking, but we are back in phase I and II,... in my mind anyway.
In conclusion,...DMX needs lots of money to feed their research and trials,...not unlike SUF using Marsfontein as a cash cow to fund their exploration. Unfortunately Pennsaid is not furnishing that, and due to slow adoption therefore slow revenue generation, the chances of a significant amount of future dilution is very high,...at least in my mind,... so the share price will continue to be under attack, for some time to come.
I still have a few freebies, because you never know when the FDA or someone may do something, but I will likely buy more on the announcement, and sell quickly into the rally, because I think those cash flow problems will remain for many years to come.
Russett is not a touter (usually (gggggggg))
Or a shorter,
But a perpetual doubter
and a worrier.
Got to scurry back under the wheel now to try and avoid that big stick from the hairy arsed wood magician. |
