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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: t2 who wrote (25191)	1/29/2002 1:22:11 PM
From: sylvester80	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

I think you are only looking at one stock or two (TYC? ) You won't see capitulation till you see CSCO down 20+% in one day into the single digits. JMHO.

To: t2 who wrote (25191)	1/29/2002 1:27:17 PM
From: ajtj99	Respond to of 99280

NV, this may be a hint of the capitulation. Actually, the sell-off in 8-days off the Jan. 9 high should have been a pretty strong hint that we're going down. Be prepared for either COMP 1742 or a re-test of the Sept. 21 lows.

To: t2 who wrote (25191)	1/29/2002 1:33:45 PM
From: LTK007	Respond to of 99280

<Long awaited CAPITULATION??> you got to be kidding today is a hic-cup.Capitulation is is,well you should know--and it isn't a hic-cup.

To: t2 who wrote (25191)	1/29/2002 1:54:50 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 99280

Capitulation with EMLX BRCD PMCS QLGC VRTS INTC MU KLAC BRCM etc etc etc etc at totally insane levels. Furthermore we have not even seen a tick count of -1000 for quite some time. Capitualtion with the VIX VXN this low? You are a dreamer in la la land.

To: t2 who wrote (25191)	1/29/2002 4:46:34 PM
From: Psycho-Social	Respond to of 99280

Capitulation? Not able to pick the exact day or level, but with my best leading indicator heading up, and key economic reports later in the week and Fed statements likely to verify the positive economic momentum that's building, I went from 25 to 50% invested by buying an S&P Index Fund today. It may not look like a good decision right away, but it will in a few weeks.

To: t2 who wrote (25191)	1/29/2002 6:03:58 PM
From: DlphcOracl	Respond to of 99280

New Vision: Today's selloff has little to do with Enron, Tyco, accounting issues, etc., and hardly qualifies as any type of capitulation. This is just analyst and CNBC stuff where they look at what is happening in the market on a given day and grasp at straws to "explain" it. The reality and better explanations are: 1. The stocks are all richly valued and overbought. Most of the tech stocks and many of the Blue Chips are still grossly overvalued. See post # 24889 for a nice discussion of this by Hussman. 2. Since Sept 22, we still have yet to see more than a 10% correction (on the basis of closing prices) in any of the indices. 3. Any economic recovery is already prices into stocks and there is no fundamental reason for them to be bid up any higher. The Smart Money Index shows that the institutional managers and funds have been selling stocks over the past 5 weeks. The "dumb money" (the individual investor), for the most part, remains on the sidelines, accounting for the 4 trillion in money markets and CDs. It may be dumb money for not having bought aggressively in late September, but it is not stupid money -- the small investor is NOT jumping into the market at these levels and is waiting for a more significant correction for a better entry point before committing new money to stocks. Simply put: the institutional buying has dried up and the small investor remains sidelines. With no one buying stocks, we still have more downside, IMO.