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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Suresh who wrote (36025)1/30/2002 3:52:38 AM
From: Johnny Canuck  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 67839
 
Hi Suresh,

It is good to hear from you.

I can't figure out what is keeping the semi equipment companies up. I just can't see the foundary capacity being used up for a few Q's yet if at all this year. The fundamentals of the chip companies don't look at that good. The low revenue numbers are just plain scary and still indicate plenty of inventory in the channels.

What do you think of the break of TYC and what do you consider the strongest components.?

We are starting to hear about the ripple effect of ENE on the financial institutions. That plus fall out of the bankruptcy of GX should weigh on the market and economy for a few months at least. Intermediate term, I would expect bad loan loss provisions to rise. Despite Bush's anticipated stimulus package, I don't think the economy is setting up for a sustained and quick turn around.

For me the early signs of traction in the economy in the Sept Q is still a 50/50 proposition. Our part of the country is seeing a major restructuring. The provincal government is doing massive government employee layoffs, and cutting government subsidies. Despite the low interest rates, everyone is keeping their hands in their pockets. I don't know who being all these new homes the economic reports are indicating. What is the mood on the street in your part of the country.



To: Suresh who wrote (36025)2/15/2002 4:57:42 PM
From: fedhead  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 67839
 
I don't get how AMAT, KLAC etc can trade at these levels.
Am I missing something regarding the equipments. Went short
KLAC at 60 and change but their resilience has been impresive.

Anindo



To: Suresh who wrote (36025)2/18/2002 3:39:59 PM
From: Logain Ablar  Respond to of 67839
 
Hi Suresh:

There was a good article on Business Week on TYC this weekend. A few of the points which made me negative (more than before) on the company are:
1) The company owns a boat which is really for the exclusive use of the Chairman. Hey they are paying this guy enough where he can own his own boat.
2) The company just issued new options to the Chairman and CFO. A new plan since the most recent options are under water.

IMO this indicates a problem with the board and its relationship with management. I've learned no one is irreplaceable @ a company and a board thats thinks otherwise seems to be missing the boat.

Now I was negative before due to its debt which was effectively hidden during the bubble years while the company grew assets, revenue and income by no small part due to its acquisitions.

I'm not saying this is an Enron but then again I would say they have participated in some accouting gimmicks (where proper or not remains to be seen & see a comment on this in the article) and there is more exposure.

Remember the recent bounce was from an over sold position on news CIT's books were open for potential acquirers (GE for one).

Without being able to acquire for a while I can see more of a haircut and wouldn't be surprised if it becomes a teenager.

Tim