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Strategies & Market Trends : Buffettology -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jurgis Bekepuris who wrote (2979)	1/29/2002 4:21:45 PM
From: Paul Senior	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 4690

Well, I say buying Mr. Buffett's stocks is counterintuitive. I assume that it's sensible for reasonably intelligent people who want to invest their dollars to evaluate the investments they are making before they make them. And for educated, intelligent folk to be aware of the danger of attributing prescience or guru-status to mere mortals. The conclusion being, an investor should review each of Mr. Buffett's picks and if one or more of Mr. Buffett's picks makes little or no sense to the investor, the investor should pass on the investment. Totally sensible and logical behavior imo. However, I have ignored or passed on too many of Mr. Buffett's picks to go with that. It's become my opinion that Mr. Buffett is unique, his choices of stocks are difficult to anticipate, and his choices once made, are often not understandable or reasonable to the lay person or analysts at the time. (e.g Am Express at the salad oil scandal, Washington Post in '76, or KO, etc.). To my way of looking at it, it's been exceptionally difficult to find stocks that have not been profitable to Mr. Buffett and simlarly (but not exactly - e.g. special preferred of Salomon) for his followers. Consequently my opinion is this: If a person wants to make money, 1. Buy all of Mr. Buffett's stocks at prices at/below his price or close to it, after their being announced in the media - if the stocks are available at those prices. 1a. Caveat: Must try to determine if media reported buys are actually Mr. Buffett's or one his surrogate's. There is a difference apparently. 1b. Buy not just any stock or what looks best. Buy them all. Get the diversification and the full benefit of Mr. Buffett's skills. 2. Hold. Since these stocks will fluctuate, if/when one should drop, the investor must have patience and the confidence in Mr. Buffett that he will yet again have another successful investment -and so will the investor who follows him. While future performance is unknowable, it seems to me that if these tactics were used during any or all of the past 25 years, the investor would be seeing a pretty good increase in his/her portfolio values. Paul Senior jmo