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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GREENLAW4-7 who wrote (6331)	1/29/2002 4:47:06 PM
From: Meridian	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206110

Green, I think short interest is pretty high amongst the home builders. I'm short CTX and it's been shooting straight up! That's fine with me however. Centex has a bunch of sub-prime exposure, acting in similar fashion to a bank but without the same business accumen. They'll get dinged when rates move up, slowing mortgage activity, slowing new home orders, and most importantly putting a virtual halt to the ponzi scheme of borrowing from the asset back market and booking everincreasing gains on securitizations - lots of off-balance sheet risk here too with Letters of Credit that act as credit enhancements for Trust Holders. IMHO earnings will go from $6.00 to $3.00 before the beloved sell side analysts know what hit them. Most importantly, the stock will go from $60 to $30 and I'll be vindicated. And a few pennies richer. Cheers Meridian