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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Psycho-Social who wrote (25328)	1/29/2002 5:41:10 PM
From: Steve Lee	Respond to of 99280

"VIX Channel: Although I watch it, it's not one of my indicators for decision-making. Based on the historical info I've reviewed, I think you need to adjust the upside limit down to 30 or below, because of the range-bound 3-month period of low volatility that we've had." If you look at the vix in June/July/August of last year you will see it had the same 3 month range. In fact, if you compare today and the previous few weeks to August 28, 2001 and its previous few weeks, you will notice a remarkable similarity, both in NDX price and in VIX and VXN. There are also close similarities in advancing/declining issues and advancing/declining volumes stats between those two dates. tick and trin have less of a resemblance, but are still fairly similar. In fact, August 28, 2001 is the closest situation I can find to todays action. Edit: also note that neither date had enough volume to mark a true capitulation bottom. Not even an intermediate term capitulation (if that is not a contradiction of itself<g>).