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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ajtj99 who wrote (25408)	1/29/2002 11:59:09 PM
From: Jdaasoc	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

SOXX should go to 475 The spot memory brokers call, fax and email several times a day since DRAM prices have stopped going up. They think they got some sucker to buy their inventory that's up 200% in 3 months at a peak. I think Hynix gets closer to reentering production as prices increases but their added capacity will cause DRAM prices to go back down IMO. $6 B in debt is going to be hard to pay off and creditors will shut them down quickly this time if prices fall again. I think MU got them right where they want them: DRAM spot market high enough to contimplate running fabs full speed ahead but ability to keep mermory prices below where Hynix can pay down debt. MU has enough capacity to flood spot market and tank prices if HYnix gets back into production with profits. Ditto for Infineon situation.

To: ajtj99 who wrote (25408)	1/30/2002 12:22:11 AM
From: The Freep	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99280

AJTJ. . . when you say << 490 is a given, IMO>> about the SOXX, what's your timeframe? I ask, cuz in this same message you make a joking reference to SMH puts as "the right thing to do." Now, don't get me wrong. . . I think the semis will decline. However, as you well know, when buying puts, timing is important. A week or two ago when EMLX was declining, you stated that 36 was "a given." I still think you'll see 36. . . but if someone had Jan or even Feb puts based on that idea, they haven't fared well. I know you're not giving advice, and I like reading your opinions, so this isn't meant in the negative way it probably reads. It's more a cautionary note about puts/calls and the problems when "given" scenarios take longer to play out than we'd like. the freep