[madtrader]
Tue Jan 29, 10:06pm PST Bearish Engulfing
Here are some names that trades at least 500,000 a day, and have formed bearish engulfing patterns today, and they are near the end of an uptrend: CC,DAL,BA,NVDA,WHR,ADI,NSM,BRCD,QSFT,FLEX,NEWP,DHR,CRUS,HLT,CLX,APOL,CHS,PEG,HD,BBT,WB,NMK,SO,HIB,WAT,TGT,GDW,IP,CACI,and last but not least SMH. I would certainly stay away from these as longs for now. And don't be surprised to see the selling accelerate with these names in the next few days. none.
[madtrader]
Tue Jan 29, 9:08pm PST ISSX
This is one of the few names that actually closed higher for the day. ISSX has been trading in a narrow band since late October. Including today, it has bumped against the upper Bollinger band for 4 times during this period. Sooner or later it will have to breakout, and the moved will be massive. I am willing to bet it will be on the upside since we are having great relative strength against the market. none.
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[madtrader]
Tue Jan 29, 5:50pm PST $VIX.X
markets
out number the longs by a factor of more than 10 to 1. There is no question that the VIX is getting close to register a sell signal for the whole market. But getting close and getting there is just no the same. There has been quite a few times that the VIX has given similar headfakes since September. Of course, ealier on, the market psychology was well prepared for it. The low volatility period in the past 3 months has again rendered a lot of those fears moot. I have gone over with all of my signals over and over, and I can only arrive at the same conclusion. Close but no cigar. But my gut feeling is that, the level of fear amoung institutional investors is getting almost as bad as September 11th. The selling after the market re-openning in September was really a fear of the system collapsing. Market participants hate market closures. Which is why the major exchanges go out of their ways to set in trading curbs, and not outright shut down of trading. What happened in September was a forced shut down that strikes fear in traders minds that such thing can indeed happen again. And since traders like me trade in a world of papers, the lack of trading itself renders those papers virtually worthless. Despite the already difficult market prior to the September shut down, the decline has been orderly. The panic that follow the resumption of trading is akin to the same type of shock an accident victim feels. That is very different from the kind of fear the market participants are feeling today. Some pundits are already calling the 90s a period of Ponzi market. And this is the unwinding of that situation. I think it is painting too broad of a brush. Unless you are someone like Richard Gere who isn't gets into "deep" philosophical discourse of what's real and what's not, the technological and economical progress of the 90s is real. The fear out there right now is what I consider a fear of lower ticker prices. Really no different than what happened in March and April of 2000 when the dotcoms collapsed. To put it more nicely, a change of investment approach. Since most of the Street, me included, belows to the "Church of What's Working Now". The Roll-ups, and Pro-Forma stocks are no longer working, money managers need to find the exit fast. Just like the purchase of Time Warner by AOL, the mega merger of Verisign and Network Solutions in the spring of 2000 as an tacit admission by the captains of those companies that indeed their stocks are too high, so better put them to use before they lose value. This cycle of conglomerates, roll-ups is absolutely nothing new on Wall Street. But it seems every generation of their versions. To anyone who has read George Soros book "Alchemy of Finance", this cycle is the fundation of his "Theory of Reflextivity" of the financial markets. Just so happens, the bust of the previous conglomerates darlings was in the bear market of the 1970s. A period that saw the collapse of the Nifty Fifties. Which is why I feel previliaged to be able to witness what is essentially once a life time kind of market unfolding in front of eyes. In case you think I sound old, I am in my early 30s. And I also glad to see the market going through the necessary cleansing process right now. This is all part of the process of cleaning and healing the system, so the next bull market can be much more enduring. Make no mistake about it, we are not in a new bear market. But at the beginning of a new bull market. Which is why I will be looking to buy and not sell. none |
