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To: Venkie who wrote (5885)	1/30/2002 8:58:25 AM
From: stockman_scott	Respond to of 13815

Vexed By The VIX? By Peter Brimelow Wednesday January 30, 7:57 am Eastern Time Forbes.com Yesterday's market break could be vindicating a new market indicator. For some time, several investment letter editors have been troubled by the level of the Chicago Board Options Exchange's VIX Volatility Index. The VIX is based on the premium that traders are willing to pay for put or call options, depending on whether they are optimistic or pessimistic about the market. Recently it's been down to below 21.76--about as low as it's been since last summer and the summer before that. With yesterday's break, it's moved upward to 26.26, but it's still quite low. Last summer, it turned out, of course, that the market was going down. This supported the emerging theory that extreme low readings on the VIX generally suggest a dismal market. Sy Harding of Street Smart Report recently published a particularly fetching chart with pictures of smiley faces (low VIX readings) and hungry-looking bears (bear markets) coinciding alarmingly. Richard Russell ofDow Theory Lettershas just pointed to the same phenomenon: "The VIX volatility indicator is now very low..When option sellers become complacent, the market becomes dangerous." By contrast, the recent peak on VIX was in the early fall--investors were most worried (well, terrified) right when the market was heading into its post-Sept. 11 low. No one seems to want to rely on the VIX alone. Ronald Rowland ofAll Star Fund Trader, which is in fifth place for performance over the last five years according toThe Hulbert Financial Digest, cautiously describes current levels as "slightly worrisome." He adds: "There is no 'line in the sand,' so to speak, in regards to the VIX. Just because the VIX has fallen to a similar level [as last summer] does not necessarily mean that something bad will happen. However, a return to a [early] summer-like stagnant market would not be a huge surprise."