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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (36039)	1/30/2002 12:34:19 PM
From: j g cordes	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 68001

Bounced right off 1850.. OT.. did you ever get that DV equip? I'm looking at the new Fuji still camera announced today. dpreview.com

To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (36039)	1/30/2002 3:50:39 PM
From: Johnny Canuck	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 68001

Nothing to Marvell at -- 12:00 PM EST by \Qi Feng Lau Marvell Technology [MRVL: Nasdaq] has been a volatile stock, but a very strong trender. During the last four months, it trended higher, rising about 275%. However, broad market weakness over the last two days is deflating the momentum. On Jan. 30, it broke a short-term uptrend line (drawn through the Nov. and Dec. troughs) and the 30-day moving average intra-day. This may be signaling some price consolidation in response to the overbought levels. Therefore, IDEAglobal expects Marvell Technology to fall to $35 in two to four weeks. However, a close above $41.50 requires a reassessment of the situation. Marvell Technology Group offers digital and mixed-signal integrated circuits for data storage and broadband communications applications. Products include read channels and preamplifiers. Risk Tolerance: ****( Low risk, *** High risk) [Harry: I have only heard a handful of CC, but indication are that GigE might be slower to roll out that expected. Ethernet is finding support in the metro space, but the cost of GigE is still too high. GigE is the major reason to hold MRVL] ****************************** Kraft Creates Decent 2002 Picture -- 3:00 PM EST by Sacha Lichtenstein IDEAadvisor.com is offering IDEAtrader content FREE through our website for a limited time! It's technical and fundamental analysis you won't find anywhere else. Kraft [KFT: NYSE], recently spun off from Philip Morris [MO: NYSE], reported laudable Q4 results Tuesday after the bell. The largest US food maker saw earnings rise from last year, met EPS expectations, and raised profit estimates for 2002, even as revenues came in short of estimates. Competition is fierce among food companies, but Kraft's integration of Nabisco (almost completed), and increasing volumes keeps us intrigued. We rate Kraft a Buy and note that the 18x 2002 EPS at which it trades compares to 21.8x for the S&P 500, with dividend yields nearly similar at 1.53% for Kraft and an indicated 1.42% for the S&P 500. Kraft, which debuted on the market in June, posted Q4 profits of $0.32 per share, or $556m, up from the $0.24 per share, or $416m, in the year-ago period. Results assume Kraft owned Nabisco for all of 2000. The Nabisco purchase is expected to add about 30% to the company's revenues. Revenues declined 1.2% to $8.76bn this quarter, and would have shown almost no decline, but 2000 had 53 weeks and 2001 had 52. Despite the flatness, sales of new products were strong, with robust revenues in the cookie and cracker segments offsetting sluggish dessert sales. Kraft made $1bn in new product sales this past year and expects to meet or exceed that amount in the coming year. Successful new products include Capri Sun Big Pouch and bottled Crystal Light. Volumes rose 5.3% during Q4, suggesting demand remains strong, despite a dip in sales. Most segments, excluding Oscar Mayer and Pizza, saw volume gains this quarter. The food maker also reaffirmed volume growth guidance for 2002 of 3%-4%. For the year, Kraft expects to earn $2.00-$2.05 per share, up from the $1.99 per share analysts were looking for, because of the Nabisco addition and widespread signs management is seeing that demand will remain healthy. The Nabisco acquisition is just about complete -- and is ultimately slated to save Kraft $600m annually, against a cost of integration at $500m-$600m. This year Kraft saved $100m from Nabisco, which topped its internal goals. In 2002, Kraft expects to save $300m from the combination of operations. Kraft compares favorably to its rivals in the food industry. Kraft trades at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 17, even with Con Agra [CAG:NYSE] at a P/E of 17. But over the next five years, Kraft's average annual expected earnings growth is 15%, while Con Agra's is 10%. Addtionally, Kraft's operating margins are 14.2% while Con Agra's are 3.8%, meaning top-line growth has a greater impact on growing earnings over time. Market Timing From the Technical Desk Kraft [KFT: NYSE] initially rose after its IPO, but has stalled during the last three months. Our bias is leaning positive, but an extension of the uptrend will not occur unless it is able to penetrate resistance at $35.37. Shares are at $34.04. Risk Tolerance *( Low risk, *****High risk)