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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Stock Farmer who wrote (111900)	1/30/2002 1:04:22 PM
From: slacker711	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

we see that 500 M is one person's estimate of the total market. The estimate for 2006 is for total sales of 870m handsets. They are estimating that the CDMA portion will be 25%....but this does not include the W-CDMA sales. As usual the roll-out of W-CDMA is the wild card in Qualcomm's growth rate. Slacker

To: Stock Farmer who wrote (111900)	1/30/2002 3:09:17 PM
From: pyslent	Respond to of 152472

GIGO... Right John. I did start with an assumption that may or may not be proven true. I'm comfortable with it, but I'm not gonna sit here and blow sunshine up your a*... A good investor is compelled to always evaluate what's priced into his stock, so he can apply what he's learned (didn't mean to offend anyone, but i can't miss a chance to use a top gun quote, being from san diego and all...). The simple fact is: if CDMA takes over the 3g voice world, and wireless growth settles to 10-15%, QCOM investors get a decent return. * If CDMA takes over the voice world and data services take off, maybe a new class of devices (fixed wireless modems, telematics, etc)catches fire, representing upside. * If GSM'ers fail to migrate to CDMA (any flavor), QCOM is about 2 or 3x overvalued at this point. That said, i believe that GSM'ers will have no choice... they are currently spectrum-constrained, and have new spectrum that isn't in use. Let's assume that European legislation relaxes, giving them a choice to install GSM or WCDMA into the new spectrum. Why would they choose the less efficient technology? Carrier's don't pay Q, handset-makers do. So it just needs to work...