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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (59749)	1/30/2002 6:02:13 PM
From: advocatedevil	Respond to of 70976

Interesting observation Gottfried. I'll have to keep that in mind when the numbers are reported next month. Thanks for pointing that out. AdvocateDevil

To: Gottfried who wrote (59749)	1/30/2002 6:13:24 PM
From: Tito L. Nisperos Jr.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Gottfried, RE: "AD, in the two cycles past the stock never looked back after two consecutive increases in SEMI orders were reported. We have one to go." Thanks for pointing it. That's another Habit (history repeated) of AMAT worth remembering.

To: Gottfried who wrote (59749)	1/30/2002 6:15:29 PM
From: runes	Respond to of 70976

Gottfried. - Second semi equip order increase shouold be in the bag. Every semi equip that reported last week reported a surge in January orders. I can't rule out a glitch because of the three month averaging but I would guess that we are at the 90% confidence level. We should also see an uptick in the ships because some of that Jan surge was for expedited ships - again, across the board comment. But to challenge your past history trend - Point 1 - all the forecasts are for second half growth yet the first quarter is being forecast at B2B of 1 by the semi equips. Somewhere between Q1 and Q3 is a void where either the recovery comes sooner than expected or the B2B is probably going to fade. Point 2 - Your data only goes back to '95 which - IMO - is a sub cycle of the '90's macro cycle. My thinking is that we are at an equivalent point to '91 - '92 where 8" was just starting to be cut in.

To: Gottfried who wrote (59749)	1/30/2002 8:29:38 PM
From: hdrjr	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Gottfried, Your chart displays that in the last two cycles there was a clear v-bottom with one month low and then off to the races, the first low above the current bottom and the second with a four month average above the current nine month sustained bottom. Drawing any conclusions from that chart regarding the latest single month, potential blip, up trend, that is barely noticeable, is reaching for a conclusion in my book. I guess one sees what one wants to see. Sorry for the intrusion, Long term Long on AMAT, just not enthusiastic hdr