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To: GVTucker who wrote (56951)	1/31/2002 12:47:28 PM
From: John Koligman	Respond to of 77397

One would think some of those funds (was it Alliance that got stuck with 100m+ of Enron??) would have at least a few of these guys... Or maybe they had former Andersen guys doing the forensic?? <ggg> Regards, John

To: GVTucker who wrote (56951)	1/31/2002 5:53:19 PM
From: Stock Farmer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77397

I'm of the opinion that if your accounting abilities are good enough, you should be able to spot potential Enrons and avoid them. I agree here. I think however it's the "and avoid them" part that's hard. Stuff like Enron goes past the accountant neurons straight to the greed center of the brain. No exemption for self or CPAs either. And I think back not even two years ago while the rational part of my brain was saying "this is nuts; sell, stupid" and the greed center was saying "woo hoo ride the gain; more coming to brilliant investors like me". And I think about the sense of social belonging at parties talking about which stocks we owned and how smart we were (meanwhile thinking "this is nuts, of course, but I'm getting rich"). And then six months later the downright nasty social expulsion for daring to express the alternate opinion. 'Cause the allure is strong. Whether it's of a Bre-x or an Enron or even an authentic college try at something novel like eToys or dramatic like Global Crossing... Or plebean like Laidlaw... oh, sure, it's strong. Yes, we should recognize the signs. Even many of us non-accountants recognize the signs. And here you struck a real chord: But if you're willing to live with the false positives, your chances of buying an Enron are almost nil. For tucked within being willing to live with false positives, there's also the social loneliness of enduring through jeers and catcalls and self-doubt as we watch apparent wealth pass by... even for the true positives. Which isn't easy. Not at all. John

To: GVTucker who wrote (56951)	2/1/2002 9:14:41 AM
From: kvkkc1	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77397

How about enlightening us with some true positives in this market.

To: GVTucker who wrote (56951)	2/2/2002 11:35:39 AM
From: John Koligman	Respond to of 77397

GV, interesting comments in today's Barron's in view of our accounting discussion. Regards, John There were rumors last week that Alliance Capital, Tyco's largest holder on September 30 with 121 million shares, has been a sizable seller of the stock. The speculation is that Alliance, for business reasons, can't afford another Enron debacle. The company has taken heat from institutional clients because it was Enron's largest shareholder. Alliance declined to comment. Alliance's best-known growth fund, Alliance Premier Growth, had a terrible 2001, when it fell 24%, and it's down another 5% this year. Its manager, Al Harrison, admitted publicly late last year that Alliance didn't dig deeply into Enron's financials. Janus and Fidelity also were big holders of both Enron and Tyco on September 30 -- the latest date for which portfolio holdings are available. Janus funds also are struggling this year after a rocky 2001.