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Strategies & Market Trends : Paint The Table -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: AugustWest who wrote (12338)1/31/2002 1:15:26 PM
From: arno  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 23786
 
I'm listening to Rumsfeld on FOX.

I'm glad GWB picked him.



To: AugustWest who wrote (12338)1/31/2002 1:52:11 PM
From: MulhollandDrive  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 23786
 
I think the laxity that brought us to these valuation levels has disappeared as Fleck says in his Rap....and I think the unwillingness to accept such laxity going forward will make the overhead resistance that remains in the market so hard to overcome.

grantsinvestor.com


06:00 PM 01|30|2002

Stocks: The Gift That Sometimes Takes Index Close Change
I'll warn everybody right off the bat that today's Rap will have more than its usual level of pontification on my part. Also, our usual format may not be the same as I try to cram a whole lot of ideas into one space. Hopefully, everyone will bear with me on this score.

America Reorganizes Under Chapter One: The Extinction Of Laxity As readers can tell from the titles of the last couple of pieces, I have been wrestling with the significance of the fallout from the Enron scandal. While I have concluded that we are going to see lots of changes that will result in lower prices, it wasn't until I read a piece entitled "The Great Divide" by Paul Krugman in yesterday's New York Times that it really hit me. Usually I don't read his articles because I find them so politically biased that even when he says something I generally agree with, I wind up disagreeing with him. In any case, he makes the following point: "The Enron scandal, on the other hand, clearly was about us. It told us things about ourselves we probably should have known, but had managed not to see. I predict that in the years ahead, Enron, not September 11, will come to be seen as the greater turning point in U.S. society." He goes on to say, "So now what? At the moment, demands for reform are scattershot and confused. Some people want new rules for 401K plans; some want new rules for accountants; some want campaign finance reform; some want a return to regulation. These seem like unrelated agendas, but I think that they have a common theme: They're all about ending an era of laxity, in which nobody asked hard questions as long as everything looked okay. That era is now over."

And God Said, Let There Be Enlightenment I believe those statements are 100% correct. I believe that this is the end of an era, much as the summer of 1982 was the start of an era of rising stock prices, prosperity in general, etc. That period ended with the complete lunacy, abuses and abdication of responsibility that we saw in the late 1980s, but the psychology never totally changed, even after the peak in March 2000. People continued to want to believe that we still were in a "new era." The Wall Street Journal continued to capitalize the words "new economy" (until recently), and people refused to give up. They seemed to think that stocks really were just pieces of paper they could trade for any price. But the Enron scandal has unmasked all of the various lies that went on for the longest time at a moment in time when the public seems to be receptive to what it all means. So, I believe that the Enron scandal is the end of the insanity and, as such, will have profound ramifications.

Incubus At Work, Do Not Disturb This morning, Joanie made some excellent points on the subject. She basically illuminated the fact that what we saw in the last half of the 1990s was really a giant socioeconomic phenomenon. She said, "The sleaze we are embroiled in right now was a long time in the making. So now, if there is going to be some finger pointing, let's go to the root of the evil and take a look at the culture of the last administration, which made deception, stonewalling, obfuscation, and outright prevarication its hallmarks. When the president of the United States lies his face off on national TV, makes a mockery of the solemn oath of the courtroom, and then cleans out the White House cupboards on the way out the door while selling pardons in his eleventh hour, it doesn't take long for the corporate culture to figure out how to play fast and loose with the truth, and to be rewarded handily by the stock market for all the wrong reasons. And that's what they did."

When T-Rex-Tech Roamed The Earth I would call that a pretty good description of what went on, and the reason why it was allowed to go on was just the overall "anything goes" mood of the country. The country seemed to be so captivated by the good times that nothing mattered. We didn't think very far ahead. During the late stage of the mania, I had a glib expression to characterize peoples' attitude toward corporate America: "We don't care if you lie. In fact, we love it. Just don't get caught."
...........

<GRUB>