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To: JDN who wrote (47100)	1/31/2002 1:24:26 PM
From: Steve Lee	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 64865

Maybe this then explains why GDP grew by 0.2% (until it gets revised down) but most industries are seeing hard times still. When the industrial malaise works its way down to the consumer via effects of layoffs, lower stock prices etc then we will get the consumer recession and GDP will really get hit. Of course, these effects have already worked their way down to the consumer but GDP hasn't had a good socking yet. Why not? Because the consumer has made up for the lack of wealth by using debt. This is not guesswork. The figures on unemployment, stockmarket capitalisation and consumer debt are there on public record. Mathematics tells you that when the ability to go into debt has been maxed out, GDP will fall sharply. Don't swap those bonds for stocks JDN!