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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Steve Lee who wrote (10039)	1/31/2002 3:10:35 PM
From: J.T.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 19219

Your question is like rolling loaded dice where the house can never lose. Here is a different way to look at it: History has proved that the market has moved up 10% higher or more enough times when the VIX was at a low level relative to the previous months and the VIX continued to move significantly lower as the market rose higher. The bottom line is this: I have provided ample proof where the market was at low levels on the VIX (much lower than VIX 24 here)and the VIX continued to go significantly lower as the market melted up. Nothing else really matters I have no further comment on this subject. Best Regards, J.T.

To: Steve Lee who wrote (10039)	1/31/2002 8:17:19 PM
From: nsumir81	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19219

NOTE:VIX has been making higher lows since 1995 so... talking of absolutes is not very useful, I think. I say this to both you and J.T. In fact, that the VIX is generally ascending, and this only shows that the VIX indeed IS LOW (per Steve) historically. I even checked going back to 1990 on bigcharts (stockcharts for some reason only shows it back to 1995). So Steve, you have a point. I think it is the relative value i.e low relative to high for the range of VIX for that year/that year and the preceding one. I think the extremes pertaining to a particular range of values of VIX (the ranges change from year to year) is important in determining reversals be they be up or down. Also the VIX seems to be hitting the lower trendline from 1995. Someone else mentioned August 2000 rally as being similar to the Oct-Nov 2001 rally. The Aug 2000 rally was a low volume affair (summer) rally on the Nasdaq and not a panic-buying/melt-up situation. It was a steady grind upwards until it fell apart as it seemed it would. stockcharts.com[h,a]dacaynay[d19950101,20020131][pf][iut]&pref=G