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To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (147605)	1/31/2002 5:32:56 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Respond to of 436258

FORUM-Fuji Xerox CEO frets yen slide to fuel US trade row Thursday January 31, 1:58 PM EST By Daniel Sternoff NEW YORK, Jan 31 (Reuters) - The chairman and CEO of Japanese imaging giant Fuji Xerox Co. on Thursday welcomed the recent fall in the yen as a boon to Japanese exporters and a cure to deflation, but warned that a further slide in the currency risked fanning trade tensions with the United States. Yotaro Kobayashi, a co-chair of the World Economic Forum annual meeting under way in New York, said a fall in the yen's value to around 140 per dollar was "permissible", but that a drop to around 150-160 yen would begin to spell trouble. "The general feeling in Japan, including mine, is up to 140 to the dollar is OK," Kobayashi told reporters on the sidelines of the summit. "If we go beyond all the way to 150-160...it may have a major negative impact on interest rates and on our trade relationship with the United States or other countries," he said. His comments come as major U.S. manufacturers, such as auto giants General Motors Corp. (GM) and Ford Motor Co. (F), have howled in Washington's direction that the yen's slide to three-year lows last week undermines U.S. competitiveness. East Asian exporting nations such as China, South Korea and Malaysia have all loudly voiced their disapproval of Japan's overt support for a weaker currency. The yen has tumbled some 15 percent since September to just under 135 yen last week. But Kobayashi said he did not think the rising international clamor over the falling yen would spark an outright trade war. "We have always had this for a long, long time. But compared to about 10 years ago, the U.S. economy, despite its current difficulties, is much stronger than before," Kobayashi said. While the U.S. Treasury has signaled that a falling currency is no substitute for structural reform by Tokyo to revive its sclerotic economy, it has shown little willingness to go to bat on behalf of U.S. manufacturers. In comparison, trade and currency tensions in the mid-1980s sparked protectionist impulses in Washington, paving the way for an accord by the world's leading industrial nations to drive the dollar lower. The changes wrought by a decade of closer global integration meant that currency issues have a more mixed impact on nations and corporations, Kobayashi said. He said the yen's recent fall had a neutral impact on Fuji Xerox's business, with the boon to its Japan-based Fuji Photo Film Co. business offset by the impact on Stamford, Connecticut-based Xerox Corp. (XRX). The joint venture firm is a market leader in digital monochrome and color products. Kobayashi said he believed the yen's decline, which drives up import prices in Japan, would help ease the country's slide into deflation by the middle of 2002. But he said there was a delicate balancing act between the positive impact of a weaker yen on curbing deflation and the risk that a sharper fall would drive up real interest rates just as Japan needs cheap money to help end its fourth recession in a decade. While the U.S. economy is showing signs of a return to health, Kobayashi said Japan would probably not begin growing again at all this year. "I think we will probably have to wait until 2003. But probably from the second half of fiscal 2002, I think we will be able to see some signs of the Japanese economy picking up. But the first half is going to be painful because the numbers will show worsening numbers, including employment," he said. ©2001 Reuters Limited.

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (147605)	1/31/2002 5:38:40 PM
From: Earlie	Respond to of 436258

Heinz: Agree. What fascinates me is that in spite of the historic defaults of late, corporate and consumer debt remains at historic heights and has hardly been dented. We have a ways to go. (g) Best, Earlie

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (147605)	1/31/2002 5:49:23 PM
From: Mike M2	Respond to of 436258

Heinz, considering the profit decline for S&P companies was the steepest since 1938 ( the good old days) I expect we will see more record defaults .mike

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (147605)	1/31/2002 5:50:02 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Respond to of 436258

Heinz, what is your take on this BS going on in Euro Land? de.biz.yahoo.com

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (147605)	1/31/2002 6:12:06 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Respond to of 436258

Heinz, do they speak in Europe about "core" inflation or is this a creation of the US only ? de.biz.yahoo.com "core" inflation in Germany was 1.6% like in the US The rise of the consumer prices of 0,9 per cent between Decembers and January resulted almost to the half from the cooling wave in south Europe. The smaller supply at fresh fruit and vegetable hunted the prices up. 0.4 per cent caused besides the tax increases for tobacco and mineral oil to the yearly start. Without the preisaufschlaege for fruit and vegetable and the control effect the annual rate of price increases would have amounted to in January only 1.6 per cent, estimates the statisticians from Wiesbaden. From December on January the consumer prices would have increased by approximately 0.1 per cent de.news.yahoo.com