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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Moderated Thread - please read rules before posting -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (18673)	2/1/2002 12:09:12 PM
From: S100	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 196639

NEWS ANALYSIS - Is CDMA Winning The Race To 3G? (01/02/2002, BWCS Staff) As operators around the world are battling to get their 3G services off the ground it would appear that those using CDMA-based technology have an early advantage. Despite the ongoing problems surrounding spectrum availability in the US, this week has seen Verizon Wireless launch the country’s first commercial 3G service with other operators such as Sprint PCS hot on its heels. Although some might dispute cdma2000 1XRTT’s official definition as a “3G” technology, with peak data rates of 144kbps it has a clear speed and capacity advantages over the 2.5G GPRS services now deployed across Europe. Meanwhile in South Korea, a market where cdma2000 1XRTT has been in operation since October 2000, S K Telecom has just introduced cdma2000 1X EV-DO (data only) services providing mobile data speeds of up to 2.4Mbps. By April the faster service will be available in 16 Korean cities and will be able to support multimedia applications such as video streaming services. At the end of 2001 there were 2.68 million cdma2000 1X subscribers in Korea, a figure that is forecast by Morgan Stanley to rise to over 17 million by 2003. By early next year cdma2000 1X EV-DO services are also due to be rolled out by Sprint PCS in the US and KDDI in Japan. In contrast the news from would-be W-CDMA operators seems to revolve around delayed 3G launches, technical problems, crippling costs and handset shortages. Even where 3G services have been introduced the news is not good. NTT DoCoMo has reported lower than expected demand for its FOMA service, Manx Telecom’s 3G trial has come up against has cell breathing problems, while in Norway and Finland a lack of W-CDMA handsets has put a mass market rollout on hold. But is cdma2000’s early advantage merely a short-term localised phenomenon? Proponents of CDMA argue that it offers a faster, lower-cost, more spectrum-efficient route to 3G but the GSM lobby would counter that in the long-term their chosen 3G technology will be proved to be more cost-effective. However to a large degree this debate is already redundant for the majority of operators in the major mobile markets of Europe and Asia, who are already busily deploying W-CDMA networks. In the US there is a split between the major operators with AT&T Wireless and VoiceStream opting for the GSM migration path, Verizon and Sprint PCS choosing CDMA and the country’s largest operator Cingular Wireless going for a mixture of the two across its franchise regions. Although W-CDMA has so far dominated the more mature mobile markets there still remain big prizes for both technologies in the huge developing markets of China, India, South America and Africa. The predominance of GSM 900 networks across the Asian markets indicates that many will opt for the natural W-CDMA path to 3G although costs and spectrum availability will play a major part in local decisions. In China for example the country’s second largest operator China Unicom’s has chosen to roll out CDMA services while its main rival China Mobile that has opted for W-CDMA. Meanwhile in regions such as South America where TDMA - which has no natural migration path to 3G – dominates there is still all to play for. As the technology arguments roll on the 3G industry maybe in danger of losing sight of the most important factor in all this, the consumer. As WAP has demonstrated consumers have little interest in underlying technologies but simply want attractive, useful services at the right price. For mobile operators matching device, price and content is key to this and in the majority of 3G launches to date, regardless of technology, one element is absent from the equation. While the price and device issues are likely to resolve themselves as 3G competition intensifies, in BWCS’ view the focus on data speeds and technology should not be at the expense of the development of 3G content and applications, which will boost mobile revenues. The key issues, leading players and winning business models in this sector are analysed in the new report from BWCS and Mobile Metrix The Saviour of 3G - the Leading 100 Application Developers. bwcs.com