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Technology Stocks : Nextwave Telecom Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (644)	2/1/2002 11:13:54 AM
From: Keith Feral	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1088

<If spectrum could be made so efficient that 1.25 MHz could handle all needs for all people, then yes, the value of spectrum would go to zero. But that's not the situation. We are somewhere between the two extremes of $10,000 per minute if there is only one minute available [actually, I doubt that one minute could be sold for that price every minute of every day] and $0 per minute if there is infinite capacity in the spectrum.> Spectrum has finite limits. That is why Korean wireless companies are now launching their second 1.25 MHZ carrier for data only (DO) purposes. SKT and KTF just launched CDMA2000 1xEV DO services, and KTF is launching wireless cable through their networks. There are 3 main types of communication services that require our attention - voice, broadband, and cable. To date, CDMA has been limited to voice since the inception of digital services. The pricing for voice only has hit a cyclical bottom now that CDMA is beginning to emerge as the global standard for voice, broadband, and cable (video). In the near term, wireless will migrate from VoIP, Broadband, and Cable applications on the handset to other devices. CDMA2000 1xEV DO will be empowered by cdma handsets, home CDMAports, wireless aircards, and other devices as the last mile solution. I think the market is not appreciating the largest point of 3G - it leverages the benefit of mobility with residential applications. If I buy a CDMA2000 1XEV DO aircard for my pc, this will offer the full mobile benefits of wireless broadband and cable. I can plug the aircard into my computer with a flat-screen monitor and watch my cable services or surf the internet at 2.4 MBPS on a DO carrier. For example, if I buy a CDMA2000 1XEV DO home port with 802.11b, I can network all the devices in my house to the 1xEV DO carrier. The contribution of 802.11b netowrking is a great complement for the host connection - CDMA1xEV DO. Of course, Bluetooth, USB port connections, and other wireless "networking" applications would be a great way to leverage the use of CDMA minutes around the house. When I think about it, it would be great to replace pc towers with CDMA1xEV DO towers. Remote storage to digital archives for music, pictures, cd, dvd, games, etc... would provide better ways to enjoy your media. Why should I buy a 802.11b tower to provide wireless networking for my computer? It woudl be far better to design a CDMA2000 1xEV DO tower with a dedicated carrier. That provides VoIP, Broadband, and Cable into the computer from the DO carrier. It could further provide home networking for other devices in the house. Qualcomm is very close to getting IT.

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (644)	2/1/2002 12:42:37 PM
From: pcstel	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1088

Maurice: If spectrum could be made so efficient that 1.25 MHz could handle all needs for all people, then yes, the value of spectrum would go to zero. But that's not the situation. Your theory has some critical flaws. However, I do agree with your point. Charge too much and very few people make a call. Charge too little and huge numbers of calls are made but the revenue is low. Charge just right and revenue is maximized. If you charge too little.. And competition is fierce. Then it becomes a commodity. In theory, the Federal Government through it's spectrum management concepts is designed to regulate the amount of spectrum available into the Free Marketplace. Doing so will hopefully regulate the spectrum available, while somehow trying to "serve the public's interest" in providing competitive services to all areas (Meto, Rural). So now you have a system of check's and balances that will aid the Free Market in obtaining that 'Sweet Spot' in the pricing curve. However, the Europeans understood that the capacity of the Spectrum could be increased dramatically via emerging technologies. So, they understood that, not only the amount of capacity available had to be regulated. But, the Technology deployed on that Spectrum also had to be regulated. So by controlling the technology deployment, and the amount of spectrum available. European regulators have been able to assure a acceptable level of public service, and a comfortable business environment to the Wireless Service Providers which allow them to stay out of the Bankruptcy Courts, for the most part. Let's look at the Original Auction 5 Nextwave spectrum. 30Mhz paired spectrum which allows 11 (1.25Mhz FDD paired channels). That was back in the IS-95A testing and pre-launch days. Since then we have had a double of voice capacity with IS-95B (equvelant to 60Mhz), then a double with 1X (equivalent to 120Mhz), next we have the dual antenna diversity concept which will provide another double (equivelant to 240Mhz). So technology has provided the equivalent of 800% more spectrum compared to the Auction 5 days. 800% more "equivalent spectrum" in 6 years. Now we have the 700 Mhz spectrum coming to auction. And another 27Mhz of "one off" spectrum parcels. I agree that there is a point to be made that technology can make spectrum worth additional monies. But, there comes a point where unchecked gains in the capacity of spectrum via technology can destroy the underlying value of spectrum due to the imbalance of supply and demand. The Free Market can not regulate itself to achieve the desired "sweet spot" in pricing and services in relation to the advancement of technology. The European's have chosen to provide a "saftey valve" in this process, by not only regulating the amount of raw spectrum available to the market place. But, also the technology which is made available. US Bankruptcy laws allow a single competitor to file bankruptcy, then the assets are transferred to another owner. Who now has a huge cost advantage over the competition who are trying to make an honest living (pay their debt). They are then priced out of the market, which in turn causes a continuous stream of other competitor's seeking Bankruptcy. Denying the ability of companies like Nextwave to destroy the competitive balance in the marketplace is a solid fiscal decision by the US Govt. PCSTEL